My latest focus group took place in Croydon, Crawley and Reading, where we heard from 2024 Labour voters in the market for an alternative, and former Conservatives weighing up switching to Reform UK.
Reform UK funding stories were the most memorable recent political news items for many of our participants. The details were often hazy, and people often muddled up the Channel 4 sting, the £72 million donations and the £5m gift to Nigel Farage. Some were worried about the amount of money involved, the crypto connection, the foreign angle or whether the donors were expecting a quid pro quo: “If there are foreign donors with their own interests they’re not going to pay £36 million for nothing in return. And it does concern me because I don’t think their wants and desires will be particularly aligned with my own.”
All the parties have got donors… They’re just ganging up on Reform
However, others were more relaxed: “It’s private funding. I’m not sure it matters;” “We need two or three strong parties, and they need money to do it. They’re trying to level up the playing field. If the money hasn’t come from something illegal, it’s fair game, isn’t it?” Many from all political backgrounds saw the resulting backlash as the inevitable reaction of established parties which did not want to be challenged: “If it was any of the major parties, this wouldn’t have happened. They’re just ganging up on Reform;” “All the parties have got donors. I think the Tories had Michael Ashcroft chucking money at them for years.” (Who? Never heard of him).
Even those who would not consider voting Reform disliked the idea of a retrospective change in the law to make the donations illegal: “Honestly, who makes these rules? It’s changing the goalposts to suit your own party. It’s so corrupt;” “It’s quintessential British politics. They’re clutching at straws, they’re panicking;” “It’s not fair, is it? You could backdate laws any time you like;” “It’s taking us for idiots as well. They stand to benefit from this law because it’s going to put another party down. Do they think we can’t see that?”
Whether they deliver is another matter, but they seem to be the most sensible option. Which is worrying, but it’s where we are
For those who were attracted to Reform, funding stories were a diversionary tactic: “They want us to talk about that so we’re not talking about the main problems.” These voters liked what they saw as an air of clarity, determination, common sense, and a contrast from the established parties: “They have a very clear, consistent message. I’m not a massive fan of Nigel Farage but he’s very clearly spoken, he dominates, he’s the loudest person in the room. There’s a confidence. The others all blend into one;” “I think people have got doubts about him. But I don’t know what other party is going to sort out the illegal immigration;” “You want a party that’s firm in its beliefs. Whether you like everything or not, you want them to be firm. Was it Margaret Thatcher who said this lady’s not for moving or whatever? That’s what you want;” “They’ve done a 100-day guarantee that if they do get into office and they don’t succeed, they’ll resign. No party has ever said that;” “Trust me, as a black person, if they’re looking to kick everyone out, I might not be voting for them. But it’s looking at who they’re going to kick out and why. And reducing taxes. Whether they deliver is another matter, but they seem to be the most sensible option. Which is worrying, but it’s where we are”.
How far are they going to go? That’s what worries me
Some who were considering Reform had reservations about how far the party’s policy agenda extended beyond migration (though some mentioned raising the income tax threshold and welfare reform), Farage himself, and whether the party would be able to deliver in office: “The only thing we hear from them is immigration. They don’t talk about defence, security…;” “He likes to be the person that’s challenging. That’s his comfortable position. He wants to throw those bricks and raise an argument. But when he’s actually in the seat, I’m not totally sure whether that’s going to be good” “You’ve got Farage and Richard Tice, but how much is there behind these two?” “Nigel tends to have a lot of personality clashes with his staff and they move on;” “I wonder if they actually came into power how amateurish they would be. Some of these councillors who got in have been sacked straight away because of inappropriate comments. It worries me that it’s still a one-trick pony.”
There were also concerns about the kind of support the party seemed to attract: “That whole thing with the masks. It just gives me a bad impression. They’ve got the ICE thing in America and they say they’re going to bring that here. My partner’s Caribbean and I’ve got friends from other cultures. How far are they going to go? That’s what worries me;” “I like what they’re about, but I become blinkered when I see people following them that are just racist, vigilante kind of people. I wonder what would happen if they got in with those people”.
They’ve changed their tune now it’s going to affect them
The Piddington referendum had also caught the attention of the groups. Many thought the residents were right to be concerned about 1,250 male migrants being housed nearby: “You can see why they might be upset, not knowing who these people are, how well they’re going to integrate. And the fact that the numbers are going to be huge”. However, some saw an element of poetic justice: “At the last election they were saying ‘migrants welcome,’ all this. I think the Lib Dems won there. Now they’re being nominated to have a base, suddenly it’s a problem. They’ve changed their tune now it’s going to affect them.”
It used to be a three-horse race, but they managed to come fourth
A few in the groups had noticed the Liberal Democrat conference, and a couple had heard their proposal to raise the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000. For most, however, the party had “just sort of faded into the background”. They tended to think of the Lib Dems as inoffensive but irrelevant and had no clear idea what it stood for: “I’m open to hearing what they say because I think he’s quite a genuine person and he’s got a disabled kiddie. But I just sort of think, what are his policies? He just jumps out of planes and things, doesn’t he? He’s a bit gimmicky and I don’t think that does him any favours;” “It used to be a three-horse race, but they managed to come fourth;” “Locally, they just put videos on Facebook about dog poop;” “I think the fact that I don’t know anything about them means they’re probably not doing anything important or worth everyone’s time, because you’d hear about it”.
You might have changed the names but you’re not changing what’s happening
Some had noticed Andy Burnham at the UN: “He did well with Trump. No clangers.” The only major outcome of the trip sounded like good news, even if it was a setback for the government: “It looks like they’ve done a U-turn over the Chagos Islands, which is quite a big thing because I thought it was a done deal. So now we’re not paying Mauritius £100 million a year for the next hundred years or whatever it is. So that’s quite a good decision”.
The groups thought it was still early days for the prime minister and were open to being impressed but did not think the early weeks signalled a major change in direction: “You might change the names, but you’re not changing what’s happening;” “My son and daughter both work and they’ve got friends who are sitting there getting three grand in benefits every month. They say they’re for the working class, but my husband is being crippled as a self-employed builder. You get to the point where you’re like, ‘they’re closed to me’;” “You’re changing the captain of the Titanic after it’s hit the iceberg;” “He’s brought back Angela, all the ones who were dismissed or left for various reasons”.
Some felt that, if anything, Burnham’s government was gearing up to make things worse: “He wants to spend less on defence and more on social. I don’t know if that’s a policy, but it’s what he said;” “I’m not a big fan of the mayors being given the option to start taxing us to go on holiday. Another tax. It’s tax here, tax there, and now we’ve got this as well;” “His government recently started about the workplace pension becoming part of inheritance tax. You used to be able to leave it to your children or whoever you wanted, and it wasn’t touched by inheritance tax, but now they’re trying to bring it into your assets. It works out about 67 per cent in total. That’s what I learned from Martin Lewis on TikTok recently.”
I like the way she doesn’t come across as a petty opposition
Many in our groups were impressed with the Conservative leader, sometimes to their own surprise: “I think Kemi Badnoch is actually not terrible;” “I like the way she doesn’t come across as a petty opposition. She seems to consider what she’s saying before she says it;” “She handles herself well at the despatch box and she’s quite amusing. I think she’s quite steady;” “She feels like a realist. She doesn’t make promises she won’t be able to keep.”
For many, however, this view did not yet apply to the Conservative party more widely: “They need to take it all apart and put it back. There’s too much bad feeling for them. They’ve created such a mess. And I don’t think they’re cohesive;” “And having so many different prime ministers in such a short period of time, we’re still recovering from that;”
“You used to know who all the big figures in the Tory party were. Apart from Kemi Badenoch I don’t think I know hardly any of them now. David Davis? I mean there’s nothing there;” “She’s strong, she comes across well, she’s good at challenging, but she’s in a party that’s like a smoke alarm with a low battery. You’ve got used to be beeping so it doesn’t mean anything anymore. I prefer her as a leader to Starmer and Burnham, but the outfit she’s with is not going to win”.
He just seems like a bloke from England that wants to sort things out
Several participants spontaneously mentioned Restore Britain. Many of these saw it as “the more extreme Reform”, but some thought they served a purpose: “What’s the guy’s name? He’s a funny old guy but he’s quite radical. No translation services and stuff like that. He’s a little bit radical but I get where he’s coming from;” “Rupert Lowe is probably the first person I’ve seen that seems to care. I don’t agree with everything he wants to do, but he seems to be calling people out with facts. He just seems like a bloke from England that wants to sort things out. But he’s definitely on the extreme side of what Reform want to do;” “He’s probably a bit more set in his ways, whereas Nigel’s a bit more malleable. Having Restore is good because it holds Reform more to account, scaring them to stick to what their original roots were”. A few thought that having two similar parties could only split the vote: “I think they should join up with Reform because they’re just taking votes away from each other. They should bury the hatchet”. All of this was news to some participants, however: “‘Restore Britain’ sounds like an antique shop”.
I’d never heard of him, but he managed to get his way in there
Finally, it being the season, what would Andy Burnham win a Nobel prize for? “Buses. The Nobel Bus Prize;” “Literature, because he’s just painting a story. But it doesn’t say much;” “Northern promotion;” “Wave riding. I’d never heard of him, but he managed to get his way in there. He managed to come in at a time when just by not being an idiot, he got the job.” What about Nigel Farage? “Comedy;” “Sticking at it. You’ve got to give it to him for trying;” “Saying things that are controversial and not hiding or apologising for it”. Kemi Badenoch? “Being stern. And being taken seriously;” “Playing the long game;” “Sincerity;” “Being the longest-serving Tory for ten years;” “Leadership, for turning a fractured party into a possible party”. Ed Davey? “The incognito award. The Where’s Wally prize;” “Anonymity;” “Falling in the river;” “Best fence sitter;” “Persistence. He’s still going”. What about Zack Polanski? “Student politics. Some of it might work on paper but in the real world it’s just bonkers;” “Eccentricity;” “Losing the plot;” “Having a cool name. Is he Polish?”
