My latest focus groups took place in Barking, where we heard from Labour voters tempted by Reform; Lewisham, with Labour voters tempted by the Greens; and Newbury and Carshalton, where we heard from Lib Dem voters who switched from the Conservatives in 2024.
We’re just going to get the circus that we had with the Tories
Most in our groups thought Keir Startmer’s departure as Labour leader was inevitable before very long: “If so many people in his party turn against him, how can he stay there? Who’s he got there to support him?” “I think about twelve months ago it was obvious he would never see the next election.” However, by no means everyone thought this would be a good thing: “It’s like, be careful what you wish for to some extent. They all want Starmer’s head on a plate, but I don’t know if there’s a genuinely credible alternative to lead them into the future;” “We need some stability, with all these people backstabbing. Just get on with your job. Don’t walk away from it so easily;” “If he goes, we’re just going to get the circus that we had with the Tories”.
You don’t need a nice man leading the country
There were mixed view on all the potential runners and riders? Some rather liked Wes Streeting: “He just seems normal. He seems like someone you could trust;” “Sometimes you see politicians interviewed on TV and they’re really defensive and argumentative, but he’s not like that.” However, some wondered if he was steely enough: “Wes comes across as a bit of a nice man. You don’t need a nice man leading the country. You need somebody who’s a bit harder;” “I want someone strong who has convictions and it sort of sure of themselves. I don’t get that from Streeting.” Rather more had yet to form a view: “I only heard of him on the news on the way here just now.”
It would be very funny if he didn’t get in
Our participants tended to see Andy Burnham as a more credible candidate: “He seems to have a more normal way about him. I saw him talking about the things he wanted to do and how the party had to change, which I thought was right. But I don’t know much about him and I don’t trust any politicians;” “He strikes you as the boy next door. You’d feel comfortable talking to him;” “He’s a mover and shaker. He does things;” “He’s obviously a more popular figure and he’s been mayor three times, which counts for so much”.
However, some viewed the Makerfield manoeuvre with a certain amount of distaste: “He’s very cocksure that he’s going to win the by-election;” “It seems a little bit underhand. What is he going to bring to the nation if he’s starting a bit underhand already? Is he going to be a bit sneaky?” “It would be very funny if he didn’t get in. That would be very amusing. But he can still go back to being mayor if he loses. I’d like it to be all or nothing.”
That wouldn’t happen for a normal person if they hadn’t paid their taxes
Angela Rayner had her backers among recent Labour voters (“She’s amazing. She’s got very good values”) but many were doubtful about her clearance by HMRC over her £40,000 stamp duty underpayment: “She lost her job because of the tax dodge, and suddenly she’s back in like it never happened;” “They don’t clear anybody normally, do they, once HMRC get hold of you. That wouldn’t happen for a normal person if they hadn’t paid their taxes;” “If any one of us did that, there’d be a penalty on top of that. It wouldn’t wash at all. For me, it’s a double standard;” “The word ‘trust’ comes up again.
It will be exactly the same but with a new person
Whatever their voting history, few in our groups thought a new leader would herald a big change in either the government’s direction or the Labour party’s fortunes: “I don’t feel like much is going to change, just with the way the Labour party is;” “It’s still Labour and they still have the same kind of footprint. You might not like what Labour are doing, but changing the leader, is that going to make any difference? I think it will be exactly the same but with a new person;” “The ship has been travelling in the wrong direction for so long it’s not easy just to turn it round. So if they’re going to make the change, make it snappy. Give the next person enough time to get their feet under the table and make an impression on the public. The more they linger, the more difficult they’re making it for themselves”. Few of our former Labour voters were very optimistic: “I think the real change is going to be what happens at the next general election. And I’m kind of deeply afraid that it’s going to be very right-leaning.”
There’s people looking in the wing mirrors because they’re around
Several of our participants had switched to Reform UK in the local elections – not just former Labour voters in Barking and Dagenham, but 2024 Lib Dems in Carshalton – and the decision had taken very little agonising. However, some of these said they were not yet sure they would do the same at a general election. While they thought Nigel Farage and his party served a useful purpose (“He’s got them scared for once. There’s people looking in the wing mirrors because they’re around”), putting them into government was a different matter: “Yes I want Keir Starmer out, but it’s the unknown. Are you going to potentially put someone in power and really, really, really regret it? I just don’t know, it’s scary. They’re not well established enough to just trust them.”
The Reform leader’s £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne was well known. Farage’s explanation that it didn’t need to be declared because it wasn’t a political donation raised eyebrows: “Dodgy, aren’t they? Not everything that goes on is above board with any one of them;” “Was it something he said or something that was found out? Because I think that makes a difference. Found out? OK, so that really says quite a bit, doesn’t it?”
They all get caught for something
Equally well known was Zack Polanski’s non-payment of council tax, with several also mentioning his somewhat embellished career history. Though few regarded either as a major scandal (and several contrasted it with the Farage £5 million), the effect was to make him seem like another politician: “Even though it doesn’t feel like a big thing, it ends up putting a bit of tarnish on, so it’s easy to think of politics as being this quagmire where no-one has any integrity or moral upper ground anymore;” “They appear squeaky clean for a while and you think ‘this person’s like a genuine person’, and then surprise, surprise. They all get caught for something.”
More worrying for some were reports of antisemitism among Green party candidates (“You’re representing the whole country, every person in the country. It’s bang out of order”). However, a number of those attracted to the Greens played down the revelations as political “mudslinging” or countered that the right was racist: “Antisemitism has a new meaning. It’s just a word that gets thrown around;” “Loads of Reform candidates are racist and they don’t even try to hide it;” “We have a sense of morals, in terms of, we have zero tolerance for that. Whereas on the right, there’s a tolerance for it;” “Why is the focus always on antisemitism? It takes the focus off the larger issue of racism;” “I think it’s probably because they’re so pro-Palestine. That’s a very different thing from being antisemitic, isn’t it? That feels like an opportunistic smear from the other parties that are suddenly very frightened of them”.
He’s a little bit too online
However, even some Green supporters were disappointed with Polanski’s sharing of a tweet criticising the police over their arrest of the Golders Green knife attacker – usually because it showed naivety and inexperience: “It’s not good political acumen, is it? It lacked maturity;” “He shouldn’t be reacting to the superficiality of social media updates without properly looking at the context and taking a step back;” “He’s a little bit too online”.
These controversies had not prevented a number of former Labour voters switching to the Greens in the local elections, however – though several stressed that they had done so primarily as a message to Labour: “I kind of like the Greens, but it wasn’t that I thought they could necessarily do a better job. It was more out of just being really frustrated with the sense of waste that Labour have given out the last couple of years. There have been so many unforced errors, and they’ve allowed this space for Nigel Farage to be seemingly the most popular person in the country;” “It was an opportunity to make sure Labour aren’t just relaxing on their laurels and that they’re not taking anything for granted.”
I don’t think they’ve let anyone down yet
Most of our 2024 Lib Dem voters said they had backed the party simply to avoid supporting Labour or the Conservatives, though some also praised their running of local councils and their assiduous local campaigning. Some had a positive impression of Ed Davey, though in one group of ten Lib Dem voters not a single one could remember his name. None could recall a Lib Dem intervention on a national issue and most thought the party was roughly equidistant between Labour and the Tories. They did not have a clear idea as to what the Lib Dems would do if they held the power after the general election, but most of them expected to stick with the party next time: “I don’t think they’ve let anyone down yet. I think the Tories have let people down. And Labour are letting us down again”.
She’s quite spicy, isn’t she?
As in other recent groups, there were positive reviews for Kemi Badenoch, especially her performances in parliament: “She’s quite spicy, isn’t she? Did you hear her today? She’s ruthless!” “She’s killing Starmer. She’s giving it good;” “I could sway towards the Tories because I like the leader. Coming closer to the election there may be more cracks, but it seems like she’s got credibility. She’s defending the Jews, and that sort of thing, and she’s trying to hold Labour to account;” “I like the fact that they’ve got a strong female leader, trying to take it in a different direction. They’ve got to get away from the Boris Johnson, David Cameron, middle class boys’ club”.
However, some thought the leader was the only thing about the Conservative party that had changed since it was in government: “I think she’s still tacking right. I hoped they’d come back to the middle;” “If they were able to say, yes, we screwed up but now there’s a complete shift, we’ve got rid of the old guard and brought in a load of new people, and stood for something that falls into line with what I’m thinking, then I could probably vote for them. But I don’t see them turning it around in the next three years. My children will probably be voting by the time that happens.” How old are they now? “Seven and nine.”
Nice at the time, but you regret it
Finally, if the Labour Party were a restaurant chain, which restaurant chain would it be? “Wimpy. Not that great and it’s going out of business;” “Starbucks, because they don’t pay tax;” “TGI Fridays. It used to be really popular;” “The fish and chip shop in the market. It doesn’t deliver;” “McDonald’s, because they’ve got a clown in charge;” “Pizza Express. Used to be nothing special but reliable. But no-one’s talking about going to Pizza Express anymore.” The Reform UK restaurant? “KFC. Nice at the time but you regret it;” “Tinseltown. Lots of noise and flashing lights, but the food is terrible; “Harry Ramsden’s. Fish and chips, typically British. Or somewhere with mushy peas and gravy;” “Jellied eel. You either like it or you hate it;” “It would be a curry house staffed by illegal immigrants;” “Wetherspoons. Old white men love it.”
How about the Conservative restaurant? “You’d have to help yourself;” “Côte. A little bit more upmarket;” “Nando’s. Had its day;” “Rules, because they’re stuck in a time warp;” “A pub. Something a bit traditional, just bad for you.” The Green restaurant? “A vegan salad bar;” “Yo Sushi;” “A local independent coffee shop selling matcha;” “Someone who’s very active on social media. ‘Try our wings! Try our wings!’. And you go there and it’s a trailer. He’s got influencers going to see him and some of them think he’s great and some aren’t so sure. He’s trying to save up for a restaurant;” “I associate them so much with Gaza that it would have to be a Middle Eastern place.”
And can you imagine the Lib Dem restaurant? “Frankie and Benny’s. No-one ever really went there but they kept popping up everywhere. And it’s never going to last;” “Bill’s. A bit jolly, fun for the whole family;” “Zizzi’s. It’s cheap enough to take a bird on a date, but she won’t be offended.”
