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“What do you think of it so far?” “Rubbish!” The voters’ verdict on Labour’s first six months

This article was first published in the Mail on Sunday

“WHAT DO YOU THINK OF IT SO FAR?” Eric Morecambe used to cry halfway through a sketch on Morecambe & Wise. “Rubbish!” the audience would yell back cheerfully. Finding out what the voters made of their first six months of Keir Starmer has been a bit like that, but without the laughs.

Most people have better things to do than think about politics, especially having endured a drawn-out general election campaign. But what gets through is telling. In my research, when we ask people what stories they remember they often mention cuts to the winter fuel allowance, rising small-boat migration, tax rises, the struggling economy, broken promises and the lavish supply of free accommodation, tickets, clothes and spectacles we now know the prime minister and his colleagues enjoyed while decrying their opponents’ cronyism.

Though Starmer gets some credit for dealing decisively with the summer riots, and some accept his arguments against a new national inquiry on grooming gangs, there remains a widespread feeling that for this government, issues connected to immigration, culture and religion are simply not for discussion. The revelations from this week’s Southport trial, the immediate trigger for those riots, will only add to that perception. The concept of “two-tier Keir” and double standards in law enforcement has also taken hold; in my focus groups, Labour voters often talked about criminals being released early from prison while others were locked up for things they wrote on Facebook.

Apart from train drivers and those receiving generous public sector pay awards, few think things are getting any better. I found more than four in ten voters saying they had been negatively affected by one of the government’s decisions so far, including nearly a quarter of those who voted Labour. Only one in twenty said Labour’s actions had had a positive effect on their household.

While many voted for change, a majority – again including a quarter of Labour voters – say the country is still heading in the wrong direction. Only one in fifty think the economy is doing well. Though most think this is down to the Tories or factors beyond any government’s control, nearly one in three say it is largely down to Labour – or Rachel from Accounts, as the Chancellor is now widely known. People fear that her hike in employers’ National Insurance and other new burdens on business will mean both lower growth and higher prices, worsening rather than relieving the cost of living. Majorities in all political and demographic groups are pessimistic about the future of Britain.

Not only that, few feel that the government has a sense purpose, or have any confidence in the prime minister to get a grip. There is little sense that a plan exists to tackle the country’s lingering crises in the economy, immigration and public services. (Whether or not they like Donald Trump or his agenda, how many will have looked wistfully across the Atlantic this week at a new administration so fiercely determined to shake things up and get things done?)

Instead, ministers seem more interested in things that barely feature on voters’ priority lists. Their fixation on reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is a prime example. As I found, most think achieving net zero will mean higher costs for them and their households, and only a minority think doing so is worth the cost or would significantly help to limit climate change.

Most also oppose allowing 16 and 17-year-olds to vote, which the government plans to legislate for this year. The ostensible reason for the change is to encourage young people to participate in democracy, but only just over one third believe that; most think the real motive is to harvest more votes for Labour.

Despite these many complaints, Starmer’s one big advantage is the divided forces ranged against him. Very few say they have yet heard anything from Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives. At this stage, most assume they are regrouping and biding their time – and rightly so, given the way they left things. Asked who is currently providing the most effective opposition, voters are nearly twice as likely to name Nigel Farage and Reform – with their five MPs – as the Tories. Starmer retains a lead when we ask who would make the best PM – but only 31% actually choose him, and more than half say they don’t know.

Crucially for Labour, while only a quarter of their 2024 voters say the government is doing some good things, a further six in ten say they are prepared to give them some time despite the lack of progress. As many in my focus groups argued, it would be tough to turn around a business in six months, let alone a whole country after a series of political traumas and fourteen years of another party’s rule. This – and the Tory-Reform schism – explain why Labour remains fractionally ahead when we ask people how likely they currently think they are to vote for each party next time round.

That said, our analysis shows that the number of voters prepared to give the government any benefit of the doubt has fallen by ten points since the election, and the average time these people are prepared to give them before deciding if they are up to the job is down to 32 months, down from 40 months in the summer. The longer time goes on with little to show for the change they craved, the more vulnerable Labour will be when the government is really tested.

In The Sun Also Rises, one of Hemingway’s characters asks another how he went bankrupt. “Two ways,” he replies. “Gradually and then suddenly”. It’s easy to see confidence in Labour following suit.

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