
My first major poll of the year finds plenty of complaints about the government. A majority in my 5,000 sample say they expect it to be out at the next election, but most 2024 Labour voters are prepared to give Keir Starmer the benefit of the doubt – so far.
What have people noticed?
When we asked people to name the last political story they could remember, demands for a new national inquiry into grooming gangs dominated people’s recollections – especially when combined with Elon Musk’s interventions on the subject. The next biggest domestic issue (after the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the inauguration of President Trump) was a general impression of Labour making mistakes, followed by Tulip Siddiq’s resignation and the weakness of the British economy.
On our political map we can plot which kinds of voters were most likely to recall each story. News about the economy, the Siddiq resignation and Keir Starmer in Ukraine appear close to the centre, meaning they were not associated with any particular segment of the electorate. However, calls for a new national inquiry into grooming gangs were most likely to register with voters in Conservative/Reform territory, as were changes to the Winter Fuel Allowance and negative stories about the Labour government more generally. News about Israel and Gaza, Elon Musk, the US TikTok ban and, perhaps surprisingly, Kemi Badenoch’s first speech of 2025 were most likely to have been noted on the Labour-Lib Dem side of the map.
When we asked people to name specific things the Labour government had done since taking office last July, cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance received by far the most mentions. Tax increases took the next three places – employers’ National Insurance, Inheritance Tax and VAT on school fees – followed by the rise in illegal migration.
Again, our political map shows which parts of the electorate are most likely to have mentioned different government decisions. Means testing the Winter Fuel Allowance appears fairly close to the centre, suggesting it registered across the board, though somewhat towards the Conservative-Reform side of the map. Increasing employers’ National Insurance is also centrally placed. However, early release for some prisoners, paying off striking train drivers, Inheritance Tax changes were most likely to have been mentioned by voters on the right-hand side of the map, while Great British Energy, VAT on school fees, raising the minimum wage, scrapping the Rwanda scheme and settling the junior doctors’ strike were most likely to have been mentioned by voters in Labour-Lib Dem territory.
Progress, disappointment and the benefit of the doubt
More than 4 in 10 voters, including nearly a quarter of those who voted Labour last year, said they had been affected negatively by the government’s decisions so far – compared to just 1 in 20 who said they had been affected positively. Nearly half (45%) of those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 said they had been negatively affected.
Just under a quarter of 2024 Labour voters said they thought the government was making progress and doing some good things, but a further 62% said they were giving them the benefit of the doubt so far even though they had yet to achieve much. Overall, 38% of voters – including a quarter of those who switched from the Conservatives – said thought the government would achieve nothing good and wanted them out as soon as possible.
In a separate question, we asked people how long they were prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt before deciding whether they were doing a good job or not. Having first asked this question soon after the election in August, we found the overall proportion saying they gave the government any benefit of the doubt was down 10 points to 62%. The average time these people are prepared to grant was down by more than 8 months (from just over 40 months to a little over 32 months).
Just over half of all voters, including 37% of those who voted Labour last year, said they thought the current government would last no more than one term. Nearly half of those who voted Labour in 2019 having not done so in 2024 thought this would be the case.
2024 election regrets?
Just over three quarters of those who had voted Labour said they were happy with the way they voted, compared with 9 in 10 of those who voted for Reform UK. One in three of those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour said they wished they had voted differently.
Of those who regretted their general election votes, more than one third said they wish they had voted for Reform instead. Among 2024 Conservative-Labour switchers who now regret their vote, 26% said they wish they had voted Tory instead – but 43% said they wish they had voted for Reform.
Most important issues and who would handle them best
We asked our respondents what they thought were the three most important issues facing the country. We then asked who they believed would do a better job on each of the issues they named – a Labour government with Keir Starmer as prime minister, or a Conservative government under Kemi Badenoch. Those who prioritised the NHS, the cost of living and (to a lesser degree) the economy and jobs were more likely to say Labour would do a better job than the Tories; Labour also led among the smaller numbers naming climate change, housing, education and Brexit among their top issues. Among those naming immigration, crime, national security and government borrowing, the Tories were thought likely to perform better than Starmer and Labour.
The economy and the direction of Britain
Only 1 in 50 voters said they thought the economy was currently doing well. Just under a third thought it was doing badly because of decisions by this Labour government (though two thirds of Conservative and Reform UK voters thought this). Half thought the economy was doing badly either because of the last Tory government, or because of factors beyond any government’s control.
Overall, more than half of all voters – including more than a quarter of those who backed Labour in 2024 – thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. Fewer than 1 in 5, including fewer than half of Labour voters, said they thought Britain was on the right track.
Net Zero
We asked a series of questions about the government’s ambition to reach net zero by 2050. More than 6 in 10, including a majority of 2024 Labour voters, said they thought achieving net zero would mean higher costs for themselves and their households. Fewer than 3 in 10 – including only a minority of Labour and Lib Dem voters – thought achieving net zero would be worth doing even if it meant higher costs for businesses and households over the next few years (Green Party voters were the only group in which a majority disagreed). Most said households and businesses could not afford higher costs at the moment, even if this meant having to put off net zero.
Voters as a whole were also more likely to agree that there is no point in Britain cutting its greenhouse gas emissions faster than other, bigger countries like the US and China than that we should lead the world in trying to achieve net zero as soon as possible. Fewer than a third overall, including less than half of 2024 Labour and Lib Dem voters, agreed that Britain achieving net zero would significantly help to limit climate change.
Votes at 16 (and the reasons)
Overall, voters opposed Labour’s plans to allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in elections – though more than 6 in 10 Labour voters said they approved of the idea.
When we asked why they thought the government wanted to introduce votes at 16, only just over one third thought it was to encourage young people to take part in democracy, as stated in Labour’s manifesto. Most thought it was because the government thinks young people are more likely to vote Labour.
The opposition
When we asked who people thought was providing the most effective opposition to the Labour government, the biggest group (27%) said “there is no effective opposition”. This included nearly a third of Lib Dems and more than 1 in 5 Conservatives.
Aside from this, Nigel Farage and Reform UK were most often named as the most effective opposition (26%), followed by Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives (14%). Those who voted Conservative in 2024 were nearly as likely to name Reform (30%) as the Tories (37%).
Given a choice between Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch, voters overall said Starmer would make the better PM by 29% to 18%, with more than half saying “don’t know”. Only just over half (55%) of those who voted Labour in 2024 having not done so in 2019 named Starmer. Those who voted for Reform UK said they preferred Badenoch to Starmer by 32% to 3%, with two thirds saying they didn’t know.
Offered a choice between Starmer, Badenoch and Nigel Farage, voters as a whole chose Starmer over Farage by 31% to 21%, with Badenoch in third place on 11%.
The next election
Rather than asking voters to state their current voting intention, we asked people how likely they currently thought they were to vote for each party on a 100-point scale. Among those who voted Labour, the average likelihood of doing so again at the next election was 59/100. Those who voted Conservative were more likely to repeat their vote (67/100), and those who voted Reform the most likely of all (70/100). Looking at those saying they are more likely than not to vote for a particular party (those whose highest likelihood of voting for one party was at least 50/100), this implies current vote shares of Labour 28%, Conservative 25%, Reform UK 20%, Lib Dem 11%, Greens 9%, Others 7%.
The political map
As above, our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are. We can see that the minority who think Britain is on the right track are firmly in the more diverse, more secure corner of the map – as are those most likely to mention climate change, Brexit and education among the most important issues – while those who think the country is heading in the wrong direction are most likely to be in the less diverse, less well-off bottom right quadrant. This is where we are also most likely to find those who voted Reform UK in 2024, think Nigel Farage would make the best prime minister, and who name immigration, pensions and “wokery” among the top three issues facing the country. In the less diverse but more secure top right, where we are most likely to find 2024 Conservatives, we are also most likely to find those concerned about government debt, tax rates and national security.
What is driving people?
We asked a series of “mini referendum” questions to help establish which issues are most closely associated with party preferences among different kinds of voters. Looking specifically at those who voted Conservative in 2019 but not in 2024, we see that their likelihood of leaning back towards the Tories is most closely correlated with a belief that the party has changed since its defeat, a preference for Kemi Badenoch as a potential PM over both Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage, and the view that newer parties and politicians would probably be no better at solving Britain’s problems than the established parties.
Conservative defectors’ likelihood of leaning towards Labour was most closely associated with preferring Starmer as PM to both Badenoch and Farage, thinking Britain’s economic problems are down to the last government or the world economic situation, favouring a closer relationship with the EU over one with the US, and prioritising higher spending on public services over keeping down taxes and borrowing.
Their chances of leaning towards Reform UK were most closely correlated with preferring Farage (and indeed Badenoch) to Starmer as PM, preferring a closer relationship with the US to one with the EU, believing this government is largely responsible for Britain’s economic problems, and thinking that Labour and the Conservatives are both part of the same failed political system.