This article first appeared on ConservativeHome.com
Why did the Conservative Party lose the last general election so heavily, and what must it do to recover? As I set out in detail in Losing It, my analysis of the defeat, there are plenty of reasons why former supporters went to Labour, the Lib Dems or Reform, or simply stayed at home.
The Tories failed to deliver on their promises in crucial policy areas like immigration, tax and public services. They did not act like a competent government. They too often behaved as though there was one rule for them and another for everyone else. They appeared to lose touch with the people who elected them. Their endless internal dramas meant they seemed to be indulging in a soap opera for their own amusement rather than tackling the country’s mounting problems. All these things and more combined to produce what my research confirmed as the biggest single explanation for the outcome: that the Tories had lost people’s trust.
When it comes to the way forward, people can draw different conclusions from the same facts. But it goes without saying that hauling the party back into electoral contention is going to take some doing. It is also going to take a leader of rare qualities: someone who understands the scale and nature of the task, who can enthuse a vanquished party, who can articulate Conservative values in a compelling way, who has the toughness and resilience for the bruising business of opposition and who can set out a thoughtful programme for the next Tory government. For me, that person is Kemi Badenoch.
Badenoch had caught my eye long before I began work on her unauthorised biography, Blue Ambition. I liked her direct and unapologetic approach, and I continue to admire the way she thinks and argues from first principles. Her trials in government, including the Post Office scandal, willingness to defend her position over retained EU law against her fellow Brexiteers in the ERG and outspoken opposition to identity politics in any form, show someone willing to stand her ground and stick to her guns.
Her pronouncements during the campaign – including the declaration that there is “no point in having policies without trust” – suggest that she grasps the reasons for the party’s predicament. She has sensibly avoided specific prescriptions and promises, correctly judging that they will follow from the deeper thinking the party must do on the British state and what it is for. Badenoch has rightly understood that the problems with the apparatus of government go deeper than the fact that the Tories were in charge of it. Here there are echoes of the approach of the Thatcher opposition, when she and Keith Joseph established the Centre for Policy Studies and set in train the reforms of the 1980s. It is this seriousness of approach – rather than precipitate pledges or easy protest – that offers the best path to uniting conservative-minded voters and attracting others for whom disillusionment with Starmer is already setting in.
Importantly, Badenoch has the pizzazz to command attention and to make the party feel better about itself. There is more to the job than that, but it is an essential part of keeping the show on the road during what will some very trying times. Her bluntness is an important part of her appeal to activists, but there are traps to avoid. One, as others have observed, is the appearance of being permanently on the lookout for a scrap. The Tories must have a grown-up critique of the government. The problem with Starmer is not that he’s wicked or insincere – such an attack won’t fly, even though his ratings have plummeted – but that he is ineffectual, and his policies are damaging.
She is right to stand for reason and common sense against harmful wokeism, and she does it very effectively, but culture wars must not appear to top the Tory agenda. While she is identified on the right of the party, there is absolutely no room for factions. She will need to mobilise all the talent at the party’s disposal. And while directness can be an asset, there is a difference between seeming honest and straightforward and sounding abrupt and closed-minded – which she is not, but her opponents will seize on any opportunity to suggest otherwise.
Badenoch certainly represents a change of pace, but it is important that Tories see her style and personality as the means to an end, not the end itself. Nor can it be a distraction from the grindingly hard work opposition requires. If they choose her, it should not simply because of who she is, but because of the job she will do. And they will have to be patient.
Motivating supporters, holding Labour to account, rebuilding the party’s professional operation, winning back the voters’ trust and constructing a winning policy platform for the next election – at a time when people have little or no appetite for the Tories – is an unenviable task. It’s not surprising that being leader of the opposition is often described as the worst job in politics. I think Kemi Badenoch will relish it.
