We have surveyed 16,677 people who voted in the general election to help understand how Britain voted and why. The results show who switched from 2019, the reasons for their decisions, when they made their minds up, what they expect from the new government, and more.
Who voted for whom
Labour beat the Conservatives by a 10-point margin among both men and women. Reform UK did slightly better among men (16%) than women (12%).
Labour won by a 25-point margin among 18-24s, with the Greens second on 15% and the Conservatives third place on 14%. The Conservatives were fourth among 25-34s and joint second among 35-44s. Labour won in every age group except those aged 65+, which the Conservatives won by 14 points.
Labour beat the Conservatives by 9 points among voters in social groups AB and C1, 8 points among C2 and 14 points among DEs.
Where did 2019 voters go?
Just over half (52%) of 2019 Conservatives who turned out at this election voted Tory again. Nearly a quarter (23%) voted for Reform UK. 12% switched to Labour and 7% to the Lib Dems.
Just over 7 in 10 2019 Labour voters who turned out stayed with Labour (71%), while 11% went to the Greens and 8% to the Lib Dems. Just under half (49%) of 2019 Lib Dems stayed with their former party, while nearly 1 in 3 (32%) switched to Labour.
Just over 7 in 10 (71%) 2019 SNP voters who turned out stayed with their former party, while 13% switched to Labour.
15% of those who voted Labour at this election said they had never voted Labour before.
When did people decide?
More than 1 in 5 voters (22%) said they only decided which party to support on polling day, or on the day they filled in their postal vote. A further 14% said they decided in the last few days. More than half (59%) of voters said they decided at some point within the last month.
Three quarters (75%) of those who voted for Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats said they decided at some point within the last month, compared to 59% of Tories and 41% of Labour voters. Those who voted for the SNP were the most likely to say they always knew how they would end up voting (43%).
To look at the question from the other direction, those who decided on the day were evenly divided between Labour and the Conservatives (25% each), with 14% choosing the Lib Dems and a further 14% Reform UK.
Among those who voted in person, Labour beat the Conservatives by a 12-point margin (35% to 23%). Among those who voted by post, the margin was 5 points (32% to 27%).
Was it hard to decide?
Four in ten of those who voted Labour said their voting decision was easier than usual, including 30% saying it was much easier. More than half (51%) of those who voted Conservative said their decision was harder than usual, including a quarter saying it was much harder.
Why did people vote as they did?
Just over 6 in 10 (62%) of those who voted Labour said one of their three main reasons was that they thought Labour would do a better job of running the economy. Just over half (57%) said they trusted the motives of Labour more than other parties, while 46% thought Keir Starmer would make a better prime minister.
Among Conservative voters, 70% said that thinking the Tories would do a better job on the economy was among their top three reasons, followed by trusting their motives more than those of other parties (51%) and preferring their promises to those of other parties (45%).
Just over three quarters (76%) of Reform UK voters said they preferred the parties’ promises to those of other parties. Nearly 7 in 10 (69%) said they trusted the parties’ motives more than those of other parties, and more than half (59%) thought their leader would make the best prime minister.
Those voting Lib Dem were the most likely to say they were voting tactically to stop another party from winning (51%), but this was the third most important reason overall: trusting the party’s motives (65%) and preferring its promises (57%) were named more often.
Tactical voting
Two thirds (66%) of those who voted Labour said they were voting for the party they most wanted to win. One in three (32%) said they were voting to try and stop the party they liked least from winning.
Those who voted Lib Dem were closely divided between voting for the party they most wanted to win (50%) and voting to stop the party they liked least (46%).
Those who voted SNP (86%), Green, Plaid Cymru (both 79%) and Reform (78%) were the most likely to say they were backing the party they most wanted to win.
Most important issues
We asked people to state unprompted which was the most important policy issue when it came to deciding how to vote. Overall, the three most named issues were the cost of living, the NHS and immigration.
For Labour and Lib Dem voters, the most important issue was the NHS, followed closely by the cost of living. For Conservative voters it was the economy, followed closely by immigration. 60% of Reform voters named immigration, with all other issues in single figures.
63% of 2019 Conservatives switching to Reform named immigration as the most important issue. Conservative-Labour switchers were most likely to name the cost of living, followed closely by the NHS.
Why did 2019 Tories switch?
We asked those who voted Conservative in 2019 but not in 2024 why they moved away from the party. The most important reasons were that “they are out of touch with people like me” (36% naming in the top three), that “they didn’t deliver what they promised” (35%) and that “they’re not competent” (30%), while 28% said “I don’t trust them”. Just over 1 in 5 (21%) chose “partygate and other scandals”.
For switchers to Reform UK, the most important reason was that “they didn’t deliver what they promised” (46%), followed by “they are out of touch with people like me” (36%).
Overall, 14% of Conservative defectors said “they were not Conservative enough” and 3% that “they had moved too far to the right”.
Only 7% said they were enthusiastic about the party they voted for instead (rising to 12% among those switching to Reform UK).
Back to the Tories next time?
Just under half (44%) of 2019 Tories switching to other parties said they could consider going back to the Conservatives at the next election. Just under 3 in 10 (29%) said they might do so again one day, but doubted it would be at the next election. Just under 1 in 5 (18%) said could never see themselves voting Conservative again – though those switching to Labour were more likely to say this (24%) than those switching to Reform (16%).
Expectations of Labour
Voters as a whole were more likely to expect taxes, borrowing, welfare spending, immigration, small boat migration, inflation and crime to rise than to fall under the Labour government. They also expected house building to rise rather than fall, and NHS waiting lists to fall rather than rise.
Among Labour voters, expectations were highest for new home building (64% expecting more), economic growth (59% expecting an increase), interest and mortgage rates (43% expecting a fall), and – especially – NHS waiting lists (75% expecting a reduction).
Leavers and Remainers
Just over 1 in 3 of those who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum (36%) voted Conservative, while 29% voted Reform UK. Just under 1 in 5 (19%) voted Labour.
44% of Remain voters backed Labour. 17% voted Lib Dem and 17% voted Conservative.
Six in ten 2019 Conservatives who voted Remain backed the Tories. Fewer than half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives who voted Leave stayed with the Conservatives, while just over 3 in 10 (31%) switched to Reform UK.
Cultural attitudes
We asked voters whether they thought multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, the green movement, globalisation, the internet, capitalism and immigration were a force for good, a force for ill or a mixed blessing.
