By Lord Ashcroft
Two years ago, my polling found a wafer-thin majority among Northern Ireland’s voters for unification with the Republic. My latest research, published today, shows a clear swing back towards remaining in the United Kingdom – an echo of the fall in support in recent months for Scottish independence. But as I also found in my survey of over 3,000 voters and focus group discussions throughout the province, it is the nationalists who feel things are heading their way.
Unification, or the Union?
Asked how they would vote in a referendum or “border poll” tomorrow, 49% said they would vote to stay in the UK, 41% said they would choose a united Ireland, and one in ten said they were undecided: a majority of 54% to 46% for the Union among those voting. (more…)