Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 8%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives’ lead is down from four points to two in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, which shows a lower vote share for both main parties. The Tories are down three points to 31%, with Labour down one at 29%, UKIP unchanged at 15%, the Liberal Democrats up three at 8%, and the Greens and the SNP unchanged at 8% and 5% respectively (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 34%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 15%, Green 8%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives retain the lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are unchanged since last week on 34%, with Labour down a point at 30%, UKIP up one at 15%, the Greens up one at 8%, and the Liberal Democrats down two at 5%, putting them level with the SNP, who are up one point. All the changes are within the margin of error.

As the parties debate the coalition’s record, I found only one fifth of voters saying they thought either they or the country would be any better off now had Labour been in government for the last five years (more…)

The campaign state of play – plus latest marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

Below is the text of the polling presentation I gave in London this evening, including my latest national poll findings and new results from marginal seats in England and Scotland. Scroll down to find the presentation slides, marginals report, and full data tables.

Good evening and welcome. If you have ever wondered what a pollster does to celebrate his birthday, now you know. Somebody kindly asked me this morning if this was the big “four-O”, and I was compelled to admit this estimate was outside the margin of error.

This evening I will be unveiling my latest polling, both nationally and in the marginals, and giving my overview of where I think we are in the campaign that will end just nine weeks tomorrow (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 34%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 7%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are back in the lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll. After last week’s Labour figure matched the highest share recorded in the ANP, the party has fallen back to its longer term average of 31%, with the Tories up two points to 34%. UKIP are up three to 14%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 7% the Greens down one at 7%, and the SNP static at 4% (more…)