The Scottish battleground

By Lord Ashcroft

Most of my constituency research is focused on marginal seats. But in post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat is rather obsolete. Huge swings to the SNP in national polls suggest that even some MPs who must have thought they had a job for life are threatened.

My first round of Scottish constituency research therefore required a different approach. I decided to look primarily at Labour seats – including some with colossal majorities – in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 9%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour and the Conservatives are once again tied in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll. Both parties are down a point at 31%, with UKIP on 15% for the third consecutive week and the Greens unchanged on 9%. The Lib Dems are up two points at 8%.

The SNP are up a point at 4%, but Britain-wide polls are not the best measure of the party’s impact (more…)