The campaign state of play – plus latest marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

Below is the text of the polling presentation I gave in London this evening, including my latest national poll findings and new results from marginal seats in England and Scotland. Scroll down to find the presentation slides, marginals report, and full data tables.

Good evening and welcome. If you have ever wondered what a pollster does to celebrate his birthday, now you know. Somebody kindly asked me this morning if this was the big “four-O”, and I was compelled to admit this estimate was outside the margin of error.

This evening I will be unveiling my latest polling, both nationally and in the marginals, and giving my overview of where I think we are in the campaign that will end just nine weeks tomorrow (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 34%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 7%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are back in the lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll. After last week’s Labour figure matched the highest share recorded in the ANP, the party has fallen back to its longer term average of 31%, with the Tories up two points to 34%. UKIP are up three to 14%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 7% the Greens down one at 7%, and the SNP static at 4% (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 11%, Green 8%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead is up from one to four points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party’s 36% share is the highest recorded in the ANP since July, while the UKIP share of 11% is the lowest I have yet found in my national polling. The Conservatives are up two points on 32%, the Liberal Democrats down two at 7%, and the Greens and the SNP unchanged at 8% and 4% respectively. (more…)

Conservative-held UKIP targets

By Lord Ashcroft

In my latest round of marginals research I have looked at four constituencies where it has been suggested UKIP pose a challenge to the Conservatives: Boston & Skegness, which UKIP “won” in the 2013 local elections; Castle Point, where Bob Spink, the first MP to sit for UKIP, came second in 2010; South Basildon & East Thurrock, which is adjacent to one of the party’s best prospects; and North East Cambridgeshire, where the Tories have had concerns in a county where UKIP have had some success in local elections (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 30%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 16%, Green 8%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour have taken a narrow lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party are ahead by a single point with 31%, with the Conservatives on 30%, UKIP up two points at 16%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 9%, and the Greens up two at 8%.

The narrow margin for Labour echoes most recent published polls, but with a lower combined share for the two main parties. Could it be that voters have found the exchange of insults over donors and their tax arrangements an unappetising spectacle? (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 34%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are ahead by three points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up three to 34%, with Labour unchanged on 31%, the Lib Dems up one at 9% and UKIP down one at 14%. The Greens are down three points at 6% and the SNP unchanged at 4% (more…)

Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South

By Lord Ashcroft

Earlier this week it came to light that a poll I published last November in Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. Concerned that this may not have been an isolated incident, I reviewed two other polls I commissioned from the same company at the same time. As I feared, the mistakes had been repeated.

The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour (more…)

The Scottish battleground

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By Lord Ashcroft

Most of my constituency research is focused on marginal seats. But in post-referendum Scotland, the concept of a marginal seat is rather obsolete. Huge swings to the SNP in national polls suggest that even some MPs who must have thought they had a job for life are threatened.

My first round of Scottish constituency research therefore required a different approach. I decided to look primarily at Labour seats – including some with colossal majorities – in areas which voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 9%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour and the Conservatives are once again tied in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll. Both parties are down a point at 31%, with UKIP on 15% for the third consecutive week and the Greens unchanged on 9%. The Lib Dems are up two points at 8%.

The SNP are up a point at 4%, but Britain-wide polls are not the best measure of the party’s impact (more…)

Watch my Sky News interview on polling and the marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

Yesterday I was interviewed about my polling on Sky News by Joey Jones. You can watch the interview here:

 

Click here to see full story on Sky News