Six more marginals…

By Lord Ashcroft

My latest battleground polling I have looked at six seats, three of which I have not surveyed before.

In Bristol North West, Charlotte Leslie is well ahead in the seat she won for the Conservatives in 2010 in a three-way fight with the Liberal Democrats. Elsewhere in the city, the Green Party has been heavily targeting Bristol West, a seat the Lib Dems won in 2010 with a 20-point majority over Labour (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 34%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives lead Labour by 34% to 30% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up one point since last week and Labour are down three. The changes are within the margin of error, suggesting that the parties’ national vote shares remain very close. UKIP are unchanged at 13%, the Liberal Democrats up one point at 10%, the Greens down two points at 4%, and the SNP up two points at 6%.

With just over two weeks to go to election day I asked people whether they were moving towards or away from each of the main parties (more…)

Latest Scottish constituency polling

By Lord Ashcroft

In my latest round of constituency polling I have returned to Scotland. This selection includes eight seats, including five I have polled before (East Renfrewshire, Glasgow South West, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Ross, Skye & Lochaber, and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale) and three new ones (Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, East Dunbartonshire and North East Fife).

I wanted to know whether the SNP surge had subsided in places I had previously surveyed; whether it threatened other incumbents, especially Lib Dems; and whether there were any potential surprises in store. The answers are no, yes and yes (more…)

More Conservative-Labour marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

In my last round of polling in Conservative-Labour marginals I found the Tories consolidating in most seats where they had been ahead in previous rounds, while Labour had extended their leads where they had been doing well last year. Some races were very close and Labour had taken the lead in one constituency where the Tories had been ahead in December.

The lack of a consistent pattern in the battleground has led me to look further down the Conservative defence list to see whether there could be some surprises in seats which ought, on paper, to be safer for the Tories (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 33%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 13%, Green 6%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour and the Conservatives are tied at 33% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Both parties are down since the last ANP two weeks ago (Labour by one point, the Tories by three); UKIP and the Lib Dems are each up three points at 13% and 9% respectively, with the Greens down one at 6% and the SNP unchanged at 4%.

Most parties and leaders were given better marks than was the case when I last asked people to rate them in February (more…)

Parties can’t change in four weeks what they’ve failed to change in five years

Conservative Q

By Lord Ashcroft

My most recent constituency polling has found an increase in support for Labour and the Conservatives – and, in their own battlegrounds, the Liberal Democrats – while the UKIP share has drifted down since last year. Even so, neither of the main parties has established a clear overall lead, either in national polling or in the marginals. So while the evidence is that voters may be focusing more on the parties capable of forming a government, they are not finding the choice becoming any easier or more palatable.

The latest large-scale national polling I have conducted on the impact of the campaign helps explain why (more…)

Back to the Con-Lab battleground

By Lord Ashcroft

In my latest round of battleground polling I have returned to ten Conservative-held seats where Labour are the main challengers, and in which I found very close races when I polled them last year. In the previous round there was a small Tory lead in six (Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Harrow East, Kingswood, Loughborough and Pendle), a small Labour lead in three (Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Stockton South) and a tie in one (Pudsey).

The most notable movement across the board in this round of polling was a move towards the two main parties at the expense of UKIP, something I also found in the Liberal Democrat battleground last week (more…)

The voters’ view, with five weeks to go

By Lord Ashcroft

 

My focus groups with undecided voters this week took place in Thurrock and Brentford. Despite the parties’ frenetic activity since the start of the year, for some of our participants the real action seemed hardly to have started: “It feels like the start of a boxing match where they strut round the ring bigging themselves up”. Local street campaigners are out in force, however. While some in the groups confessed to peeking from upstairs curtains to avoid opening the door to a canvasser, there was still an appetite for the traditional doorstep conversation: “You can send me bits of paper all you like, but I’ve got questions. You can’t ask a piece of paper questions. Knock on my door!” (more…)

The Liberal Democrat battleground

By Lord Ashcroft

In my latest round of constituency research I have returned to eight seats in the Liberal Democrats’ battleground where I found very close contests in previous rounds of polling. These included one Conservative-held seat (Camborne & Redruth), five Lib Dem seats where the Tories are second (North Cornwall, North Devon, St Austell & Newquay, St Ives, and Torbay), and two seats where the Lib Dems are challenged by Labour (Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam).

The mix of results this time round underlines the lack of any uniform swing and the hazards of trying to calculate seat numbers on the basis of national vote shares (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 36%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 10%, Green 7%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are two points ahead of Labour in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Both parties have seen an increase in their share since last week – the Conservatives up three points to 36%, Labour up one to 34%. The Liberal Democrats are down two points to 6% and UKIP down two to 10%, the party’s lowest vote share in the ANP since its launch last May. The Greens are up two points to 7% and the SNP down two points at 4%.

In other questions I found a small shift in underlying attitudes in favour of Ed Miliband and Labour (more…)