My referendum polling has found seven different kinds of voter, from those who are sure they’ll vote to leave to those who are sure we should remain. A quarter of us are Nothing to Lose voters, who think Britain is on the wrong track, are wo

Earlier this month I published my latest research on how British voters are coming to terms with the issues in the EU referendum. There will be plenty more of that to follow. But to add an extra dimension, we decided to peer through the other end of

The European Parliament elections are just weeks away. Depending on the result of the next general election, we are perhaps three years from an in-out EU referendum. Yet despite the furious debate the subject generates among politicians, huge numbers

On the face of it, Ed Miliband’s non-referendum pledge held a clear upside and a clear downside for Labour. Matching David Cameron’s guarantee of an in-out referendum would mean that if he won, Miliband would have to spend a good deal of his prem

A year ago I wrote that no self-respecting pollster would ask the question that Alex Salmond planned to put before the people of Scotland in his referendum. The Electoral Commission has come to the same conclusion, rejecting the SNP’s proposed form

The policy contained in the Prime Minister’s speech of ten days ago was a good answer to the question “what should we do about Europe?” It was never, I hope, supposed to answer the question “what will ensure we win?” If

Whatever David Cameron said today was going to displease somebody. For those who want to leave the EU tomorrow he could never go far enough; for those who want to stay at any cost, including his coalition partners, any suggestion that the British peo

Last month the UK Independence Party came second in two parliamentary by-elections, in Rotherham and Middlesbrough. This prompted its leader, Nigel Farage, to claim his party was the new third force in British politics. UKIP now regularly pips the Li

If there is one thing that unites Conservatives it is the desire to win the next general election outright. Certain things follow from this. The first is that we need more votes at the next election than we received at the last. This means attract

This is an edited version of the presentation I gave yesterday to the International Democrat Union Forum in London.   To begin with, a very brief history of British politics since the general election of 2019, at which the Conservatives under Bo