Until the weekend, it looked as though the Republican National Convention would be dominated not by the formal nomination of Donald Trump but whether Joe Biden would still be his opponent. Not anymore. Saturday’s attempted assassination probably changes more than we can currently foresee. It seems crass to focus on the political implications of what we saw in Butler, but there is no escaping them – whether for either campaign, or for the voters.
Americans’ genuine horror at the shootings will surely bring a wave of sympathy and support for Trump, as will his instinctive determination to stand and signal to the crowd as he was bundled away by the Secret Service. But the tone of this Convention will be crucial to what then unfolds. Trump now has a possibly fleeting opportunity not just to appear strong and defiant, but a unifier in a way that previously seemed unthinkable. After surviving his own shooting in 1982, President Reagan’s first public appearance was at a joint session of Congress, where he was cheered across the aisle. Trump’s is set to be at a gathering which is hyper-partisan by definition. As he was hustled to safety, we all saw him shout “Fight! Fight!” The question will be – fight whom, or what?
JD Vance, Ohio Senator and now vice-presidential nominee, tweeted that Biden campaign rhetoric “led directly” to the assassination attempt. Others have heavily criticised the Justice Department for what they see as major security failures on the day, and a row is brewing over whether the Secret Service turned down a request for extra resources from the Trump campaign. Will Trump follow suit? He says not, and that he has torn up what was going to be a “humdinger” of an attack on Biden’s record in his acceptance address on Thursday.
“It’s going to be a whole different speech now,” he said on Sunday. “I think it would be very bad if I got up and started going wild about how horrible everybody is, and how corrupt and crooked, even if it’s true. Had this not happened, we had a speech that was pretty well set that was extremely tough. Now, we have a speech that is more unifying.” Its content will shape what follows not just in the months but the years beyond.
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It is said that Trump’s first and only consideration in choosing a VP whether the individual concerned was ready to be president from day one – a factor which may have come into sharper focus in the last 48 hours. My most recent pollingfound that for Americans as a whole, the most appealing (or least unappealing) of the widely canvassed options included Nikki Haley – surely always a fabulously unlikely prospect. Among Republicans, it was Ron DeSantis. Bottom of the list for the electorate in general was South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, who must rue the day she described the demise of her unfortunate dog.
Vance was neither the most nor the least popular. But it’s hard to see the choice making much difference electorally: if you like Trump, his running mate isn’t going to put you off; if you don’t, the potential VP isn’t going to bring you round. As one of our focus group participants astutely put it, “You don’t bet on a sports team because of their third-string quarterback.”
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Despite the gravity of the last 48 hours, the mood in Milwaukee feels very upbeat. There is a feeling of relief and disbelief – as Vivek Ramaswamy put it at a Heritage Foundation gathering yesterday, “we were a hair’s breadth from a civil war” – but also of cheerful optimism. If they were hopeful before, Republicans seem to feel the election is theirs to lose.
Whatever the atmosphere, an American political convention makes a British party conference look a bit like a village fete. The RNC action takes place in the Fiserv Forum, a vast sports arena which is normally home to the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team, and 50,000 people are expected to descend on the city for the event. Cities compete in a World Cup-style bidding process for the right to host the event, which is expected to bring some $200 million in revenue to the area – Milwaukee was chosen two years ago against finalist Nashville, after Salt Lake City, Pittsburgh and Kansas City were eliminated in earlier rounds. The Wisconsin State Assembly even passed a bill to extend bar opening hours in the region to 4am during the convention, two hours later than usual.
Whether the residents think it’s worth the trouble is another question. Tight security demands a labyrinth of barriers and road closures, and the wall-to-wall politics begins on the drive in from the airport. “Your nominee is a convicted felon” declares a billboard with an upside-down GOP elephant logo. Another features a huge picture of Trump with the legend “I love Milwaukee. I have great friends in Milwaukee”. Further on: “Almost 10 million illegal aliens have crossed the border since 2021.” A mile later, “Bidenflation has cost Wisconsin families an average of $22,900 since 2021. Thanks, Democrats.”
What the place really has is votes. Milwaukee is a heavily Democratic town, but Wisconsin was crucial to the last two elections, unexpectedly backing Trump eight years ago and flipping to Biden in 2020. The state’s lucky voters can expect a lot more attention over the next four months. Hillary Clinton notoriously failed to visit during the 2016 campaign, a mistake neither side is going to make again.
