My focus groups this month took place in Ilford, Guildford, Bolton and Altrincham, where we heard from (respectively) regular Labour voters, and Conservative switchers to the Lib Dems, Reform and Labour. We talked about the forthcoming Budget, crime, prisoners, the Tory alternative and, first, the BBC.
You used to take it as gospel. But the BBC is definitely not gospel
The BBC bias revelations, including Panorama’s doctored Trump speech, came as no surprise to many in our groups – particularly those leaning towards Reform UK: “I take it with a pinch of salt because it’s very one-sided. They’re not supporting Trump, they’re not supporting Israel, but it’s not just international news. It’s not representing facts from different sources. It’s strictly following a kind of pathway;” “It’s more so with trans. They’re frightened of being told off, aren’t they?” “When I was growing up you either watched BBC news or ITV news and you just took it that that was the facts and that was gospel. But we’ve been lied to that many times. The BBC is definitely not gospel.” The Panorama scandal made some question other things they might have seen: “What else has been doctored in the past?”
Some said their suspicions had been growing for several years: “I fell out with the BBC when the Jimmy Savile situation arose. They found out that the big bosses in the BBC were aware of what was going on;” “It’s like the grooming gangs that were covered up for so long. People knew what was going on in this country but chose to ignore it;” “For me it was in 2020 when they had all the professors on saying we need lockdowns and all the rest of it, and anyone else who had other suggestions were conspiracy granny killers. They didn’t give them airtime, they wouldn’t give a balanced view. That was when I started to think no, I don’t trust the BBC.” These participants agreed that the BBC should apologise to President Trump over the speech, and some thought he had a good legal case: “I hope he takes them to the cleaners”.
This was not universal – some said they still broadly trusted the BBC, albeit more sceptically than might once have been the case and while being reluctant to rely on a single source: “I think they give you the facts. I don’t think they tell you everything they know straight away, but I think they do give you factual information;” “I think we still hold it to a higher standard, but we’re all much more savvy with our news. Certainly with my kids I always say never take one source.”
It’s like our safety and our society are not a priority under this government
The spate of accidental prisoner releases was among the first issues participants raised in all the groups. For many, the first reaction was simple astonishment that such a thing could happen: “He tried to hand himself in, but the police ignored him apparently. He was outside the prison for about 90 minutes!” “How can it be a mistake? I just don’t get it.”
Those more sympathetic to Labour tended to blame the system or lack of investment under previous governments: “These guys are run by Serco. It’s not run by the state anymore, it’s a private company paying peanuts;” “There’s not enough people, the prisons are overcrowded, mistakes will be made.” However, this wasn’t a good enough explanation for others, including many who had voted Labour in 2024: “How can it be because they’re overcrowded? It can’t be that, because everyone who goes there obviously has a name, a tag or whatever. So how do you release someone? It’s not OK;” “I’m not blaming the government exclusively, but it’s just another cock-up. They’re not doing anything to help it, though. They’re just letting it go.” Some had noticed David Lammy’s performance on the issue: “The worst thing is that the MP knew about it and didn’t share that information. He knew about it for some time before it was shared in parliament.”
Some saw the issue in the wider context of the government’s failure to control the borders and protect people from the consequences of illegal migration: “It’s just more insult to injury, with the state of the country in terms of migration and men who are coming here and committing sex crimes and grooming and all that. And then to have that additional bit put on us, ‘oh, we’ve accidentally released somebody’ because they’re not doing their jobs properly. It’s like our safety and our society are not a priority under this government.”
It’s become a bit like the Wild West, there’s no accountability
There was a similar pattern of argument over the Huntington train stabbings, which were also much on people’s minds. Again, some blamed police cuts in the austerity years, together with a lack of investment in mental health care and support. Some also argued that such incidents were over-politicised on both sides.
But once again, 2024 Labour voters were very much among those who saw this incident – together with what they felt was a growing threat of random violence – as part of a pattern which included an absence of consequences for serious crime and seriously skewed police priorities: “It’s not just the train thing. I’m Jewish, and that happened in a synagogue. It’s too close to home for me now. It just makes me fearful. I don’t want to go on public transport. I don’t want to do anything;” “I think there’s a bit of lawlessness in this country now. It’s become a bit like the Wild West, there’s no accountability. People feel they can get away with things, so they just do it;” “They go into supermarkets and just take things, and no-one does anything. Yet I can drive along and go in a yellow box and get a ticket. Law-abiding citizens take the brunt for everything;” “On the train the other day, kids just walked past, completely pushing through the barriers. I’m surprised I didn’t get killed because I opened my mouth. I hate it.;” “It’s a dangerous job, but they seem to be over-policing in other areas, like speech.”
The government should start with themselves, with their own costs, but they’re not prepared to do it
The groups were largely resigned to (though often angry about) the prospect of tax rises in the Budget. This included an increase in income tax (the groups were conducted before the news that Rachel Reeves had abandoned this plan). Several said that although they thought Labour would increase taxes generally, they had believed the income tax pledge because it was so unequivocal. What were they expecting now? “A smaller Christmas present.”
A few Labour voters were prepared to defend another round of tax increases: “Let’s be realistic, there’s a massive deficit and they’ve got to find some way to plug it. We can’t expect a free NHS and the services we have without it hitting our pockets.” However, many felt the expected rises were driven by the government’s failure to control spending, especially on welfare, the asylum system and general waste: “They were going to cut back on the welfare state, weren’t they? Then it was their own party that decided no, we’re not going to do that. The backbenchers revolted. That was another thing they promised to do that hasn’t happened;” “And they’re going to put up the child benefit thing, which has been a big thing for them. Increase it to three or four or however many children;” “The government should start with themselves, with their own costs, but they’re not prepared to do it.”
They often said they would mind less about tax rises if they expected to see any benefit: “I don’t think anyone would have a problem if taxes were going up and we were seeing NHS queues going down and schools were improving and stuff like that. Doctors haven’t gone back to normal since covid;” “People wouldn’t have a massive issue if we were seeing that money invested in real things for Britain. But we’re funding hotels at £6 million a day for illegal migrants who are not even contributing. We’re not even talking about women and children and vulnerable people. There was a case the other day of a £600 taxi bill to take someone to the doctor’s.”
I think everyone’s doing their bit. And more
Several said they felt demoralised to feel they were being punished for doing the right thing: “It doesn’t give you any desire to work hard or do better for yourself because they’re going to tax anybody that’s doing well. You think, what’s the point of trying?” They also found it galling to be told by the Chancellor that we all had to “do our bit”: “I think everyone’s doing their bit. And more.”
The groups had picked up on Labour figures talking about avoiding tax rises on “working people,” which many found ridiculous or even insulting: “Labour say they want to help the working class. What is the working class? We’re all working, so I never understand what they mean by that. They’re a bit obsessed with who they see as rich;” “What really gets me is that they sat they’re not going to raise taxes on working people and then define working people as a particular bracket. You’re either working or you’re not;” “I do tax returns for builders and they’re all on over 50 grand. They’re not rich people, they’re builders.”
There was also some scepticism, and sometimes laughter, about Rachel Reeves’s remark in a recent interview that if she resigned this would damage market confidence in Britain: “She is the damage!” “How can they lose confidence? There isn’t any confidence to lose.”
They come and go all the time
Some thought the Conservative Party was beginning to make some progress: “It’s got better. At the start it looked an absolute shambles but they’ve started to sort themselves out. Kemi Badenoch said recently that she was doing back-office stuff to save the Conservative Party because we’d run out of money and almost went bankrupt, and if that’s the case then that’s definitely what you have to do first. And she probably needed to lie low a bit politically, because everything you said would just look like mudslinging against something you’d handed over. But I think that time has passed.”
Kemi Badenoch herself had captured the attention of some 2024 Tory defectors: “I think she’s feisty, and she’s probably sincere to try her best to do things;” “She looks trustable to me.” However, several said they found it hard to believe in her longer-term prospects because the thing about Tory leaders is that “they come and go all the time.”
The few who remembered the party’s pledge to scrap stamp duty tended to like the idea: “I’m not sure how they’re going to pay for it, but as someone who’s looking to move that was an interesting idea;” “You’re taxed on your income, what you buy, you’re taxed on everything. To then have to pay again to buy a house, it’s just nonsense.” Some who had heard of it doubted it would ever happen in practice: “They won’t get rid of it, that’s not realistic. I don’t know anyone who’s not paying stamp duty on a house in Guildford these days, even a one-bedroom flat. If all that money were to disappear, it would have a massive impact. It’s one of those things they use to grab people to think yeah, that’s what we want, but they won’t follow through with it.”
Though many 2024 switchers said they were done with Labour, whether they were ready to go back to the Conservatives was a very different question: “Kemi says ‘I’ll do this and I’ll do this’, but I think if they got into power, it wouldn’t happen. They said they’d get immigration under control, and that didn’t happen;” “I think they were stronger at the last election than they are now, because I don’t know anything about them;” “I think she’s good. She just hasn’t got what Nigel Farage has got. They’re not even the second party now, they’re just about the third.”
They had a good campaign where he was doing all those silly things
Some longer-standing Labour voters who were disappointed with the government said they had started to take an interest in the Greens and their new leader, Zack Polanski, though they still had questions that needed answering: “He’s really passionate and I’m attracted to his style of leadership, but it feels like a bit of rebranding because, green, we’re already doing renewable energy and wind. I’m curious what answers they have on big economic issues. I feel like I know where they might stand on progressive issues and international affairs, but I’m curious how they would address current economic issues at the Budget.” In Ilford, several also felt the imperative to stick by Wes Streeting, who judging by our groups is an unusually well-known and popular MP (“a really, really decent guy”) – especially given his wafer-thin majority.
In Guilford, none of our participants had heard anything about the Liberal Democrats since voting for them last year. A few said they had liked some of the party’s policies (“like trying to clean up the water”) or “they had a good campaign where he was doing all those silly things,” but for most it had simply been the best local alternative to the Conservatives (“I knew Reform weren’t getting in and I didn’t want Labour”).
It’s there in the cupboard, but you never take it out
And finally, with Black Friday around the corner… if Keir Starmer were a household appliance, what household appliance would he be? “An ironing board. Stiff and lifeless. Things just run over him and he gets flattened;” “A Hoover that cleans up the small things, but the big issues are always still there;” “A whisk, because he keeps going round in circles;” “A hairdryer on a very low setting.”
What about Kemi Badenoch? “A rolling pin. She’s trying to smooth everything out, but the pastry’s breaking because it’s full of cracks;” “A breadmaker. It’s there in the cupboard but you never take it out.”
And Nigel Farage? “A ninja blender. He’d get things done quicker;” “A car alarm that keeps going off;” “One of those hobs where you can’t tell if it’s still really hot. If you put your hand on it you’re going to get burned;” “An air fryer. It’s new and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. But there are still a few people that are a bit unsure and want to stick to their old oven.”
How about Ed Davey? “A comfy armchair;” “One of those singing fish things. A Billy Bass. It makes you laugh for a minute or so but then you forget about it because the battery’s gone.”
