Most voters back the principle of welfare reform but doubt Labour will go through with it, according to my latest polling. We also find that winter fuel and tax rises dominate recollections of Labour’s record so far, and that people expect further tax rises in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, value our trade relationship with the EU over the US, are more likely than not to favour tariffs on American imports.
What have people noticed?
Ukraine peace negotiations and the scrapping of NHS England were easily the two top stories when we asked what recent political news people could remember. Welfare reform, tariffs and the forthcoming Spring Statement were next on the list.
By plotting people’s answers on our political map, we see which kinds of voters have been most likely to mention each story. The Ukraine and NHS stories are close to the centre, meaning they were recalled fairly universally. News about tariffs, Gaza, Tesla, benefit cuts and Nicola Sturgeon were more likely to have been picked up in the Labour-leaning side of the map, while stories about small boats, tax rises and Rupert Lowe were most likely to have been recalled by voters in Conservative and Reform territory.
What have Labour done?
When we ask voters name something specific the Labour government has done since the election last July, the winter fuel allowance, employers’ national insurance and other tax rises continue to dominate people’s answers. Abolishing NHS England and benefits cuts also appeared in this month’s table.
Our political map also shows which parts of the electorate are most likely to have registered these actions. Winter fuel and national insurance are fairly central, while immigration and early release for prisoners are most likely to have been recalled by voters on the right-hand side of the map. Abolishing NHS England, supporting Ukraine, offering Donald Trump a state visit, raising defence spending and cutting disability benefits were most likely to be mentioned by those in more urban, diverse, Labour-leaning territory.
Welfare reform
More than 6 in 10 voters, including a majority of those who voted Labour in 2024, said reforming the benefits system in order to control rising costs and ensure people go to work if they are able was the right thing do. Within this, however, more thought Labour would not actually do it (38%) than would carry out the plan (24%). Those who thought it was the wrong thing to do was overwhelmingly more likely to think Labour would actually do it (20%) than not (2%).
Pluralities in most voter groups agree that it is possible to cut spending on benefits and reform the welfare system without hitting people who really need help (39% overall). Green voters from 2024 are the only group more likely to think such reforms would inevitably hit some people who need help and that they should not therefore happen. 28%, including 40% of 2024 Tories, a quarter of Labour voters and a third of Reform voters, say cutting spending and reforming the system will inevitably hit some people who need help but that it must happen anyway because the current system is unaffordable.
Voters as a whole were more likely to think the system makes it too easy to apply for benefits (39%) than to think it was too hard (18%) or that the balance was about right (16%). 2024 Labour voters were fairly evenly divided between the three views. Conservative and Reform voters were much more likely to think it was currently too easy to claim benefits (both 61%).
The economy and the Spring Statement
Asked who would do the better job running the economy, voters chose Starmer and Rachel Reeves over Badenoch and Mel Stride by 30% to 21% (up from 28% to 23% last month) with just under half (49%) saying “don’t know”.
Looking to this week’s Spring Statement, only 18% want the Chancellor to raise taxes in order to balance the books, but 46% think she will do so. 40% would prefer her to put more emphasis on cutting spending, but only 26% think she will do so. Those who voted Labour in 2024 were more likely to want her to raise taxes (30%) than cut spending (26%), but thought she was more likely to do the latter (37%) than the former (35%).
World affairs
Voters as a whole said they prioritised Britain’s trade relationship with the EU or the US by 61% to 14%. Around 8 in 10 Labour and Lib Dem voters took this view. 2024 Conservatives were also more likely to prioritise the EU trade relationship (50%) over the US (23%). Those who voted Reform UK were the only group to say Britain’s trade relationship with the US was more important than that with the EU (by 41% to 31%).
Reform UK voters were the only group among whom a majority (55%) would see avoiding tariffs that were imposed on the EU as a significant benefit of Brexit. All other voters thought either that it would be a small benefit of Brexit outweighed by the costs, or that it was nothing to do with Brexit one way or the other.
Following the imposition of tariffs onto steel and aluminium imports into the US, voters were more likely to say the UK should impose tariffs on US imports (42%) than that we should not (27%). Reform UK voters were the only group more likely to say Britain should not impose tariffs (39%) than that we should (36%).
Voters as a whole were more likely to think Keir Starmer should be more critical of President Trump and his policies (38%) than that he had got the balance about right (31%); fewer than 1 in 10 (9%) thought he should be more supportive of Trump. Labour from 2024 voters were among the most likely to say Starmer had got the balance right, but also the most likely to say he should be more critical.
A majority (55%) of voters as a whole said they were in favour of British troops being deployed to Ukraine as part of an international peacekeeping force in the event of a settlement with Russia. Those who voted Reform UK were the only group more likely to oppose British troops’ participation (59%) than support it (35%).
Farage, Reform and potential coalitions
Just under half of all voters, including 32% of 2024 Conservatives and 68% of Labour voters, said they thought Nigel Farage just wants to get publicity and cause trouble rather than bring about change. Among the remainder, people were more likely to think he was serious about getting into government and changing things (22%, including 32% of Conservatives and 58% of Reform UK voters) than that he wants to represent people’s views and bring pressure for change but doesn’t want to be in office himself (15%).
A majority (58%) of all voters said they saw Reform UK as a protest party, but were slightly more likely than not to think it could in time be a serious party of government – 2024 Conservatives were the most likely to take this latter view (41%). Just over half (51%) of 2024 Reform UK voters said they thought they were already a serious party of government, as did 56% of those currently leaning towards voting Reform at the next election.
Just under half of all voters, including 32% of 2024 Conservatives and 68% of Labour voters, said they thought Nigel Farage just wants to get publicity and cause trouble rather than bring about change. Among the remainder, people were more likely to think he was serious about getting into government and changing things (22%, including 32% of Conservatives and 58% of Reform UK voters) than that he wants to represent people’s views and bring pressure for change but doesn’t want to be in office himself (15%).
The fundamentals
Asked whether the four main parties had various positive attributes, 28% said Reform UK were “clear about what they stand for”. Otherwise, the proportion saying any of the descriptions were true of any of the parties fell well below 20%. The Conservatives were thought least deserving of nearly every description.
Given a choice between Starmer and Badenoch, voters overall say Starmer would make the best PM by a 20-point margin (34% to 14%, compared t0 12 points in February), though with more than half saying “don’t know”. 68% of 2024 Labour voters say Starmer would make the better PM, up from 63% last month. Those who voted Reform UK in 2024 said they preferred Badenoch to Starmer by 29% to 6%, with 65% saying “don’t know”.
Offered a choice between Starmer, Badenoch and Farage, voters chose Starmer over Farage by 35% to 19% (compared to 30% to 23% last month), with Badenoch in third place on 8%. 2024 Conservatives named Badenoch over Farage by 29% to 24%.
Those who voted Labour in 2024 put their chances of doing so again at the next election at an average of 58/100. Those who voted Conservative were more likely to repeat their 2024 vote (68/100). Those who voted Reform UK put their chances of doing so again at 64/100, down from 72/100 last month. Those who switched to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting for the party again next time at 45/100, unchanged from last month. Those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting Labour again next time at an average of 39/100, also unchanged. Those who switched away from the Conservatives in 2024 currently put their likelihood of return to the party next time at 24/100.
Looking at those more likely than not to vote for a particular party (those whose highest likelihood of voting for one party was at least 50/100), this implies current vote shares of Labour 30% (+2), Conservative 24 (+1), Reform UK 19% (-4), Greens 11% (-), Lib Dems 10% (+1), Others 6% (+1).
The political map
As above, our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are. Here we see how opinion is distributed on who would make the best PM, people’s preferred coalition, what Rachel Reeves should and will do in the Spring Statement, whether it is too easy or too hard to apply for benefits, and whether Reform is a protest party or a serious party of government.
What is driving people?
To help understand what is driving the choice between the two parties, we asked a series of “mini referendum” questions and correlated their answers with their stated likelihood of voting for different parties at the next election.
We can see above the analysis for those who voted Conservative in 2019 but not in 2024. People are more likely to lean towards the Conservatives if they think the party has changed since losing the last election, prefer Badenoch as PM over both Starmer and Farage, think new parties would be no better at solving Britain’s problems, and prioritise controlling taxes and borrowing over higher public spending.
These voters are more likely to be leaning towards Reform if they prefer Farage as PM, value Britain’s relationship with the US over the EU, see Labour and the Tories as part of the same failed political system, prioritise tax cuts over high spending, see current immigration levels as bad for Britain and prioritise jobs, growth and lower prices over tackling climate change.
These Conservative defectors are more likely to be leaning towards Labour if they prefer Starmer to Badenoch, think Britain’s economic problems are down to the last government or the world situation, value our relationship with the EU over the US, prioritise climate change over growth and jobs, and think new parties would be no better at tackling Britain’s problems.
They are more likely to be leaning Lib Dem if they prefer Starmer over Badenoch and Farage, value the EU over the US, blame the last government or the world situation for Britain’s economic problems, and prefer coalition to single-party government.
Above is the same analysis for those who voted Labour in 2024 but now say they are likely to vote for a party other than Labour at the next election. In many cases, the correlation between their attitudes and their likelihood of leaning to one party or another are similar to those among 2024 Conservative defectors. Notably, however, for disillusioned Labour voters attracted to the Greens, thinking current immigration levels are good for Britain is almost as strong a factor as prioritising climate change over economic growth.
