Make America Mellow Again
We didn’t know what to expect from Donald Trump in his first public remarks since the Butler rally, but I’m not sure we were expecting that. In some ways he attempted to keep his promise of a unifying message – the declaration that he was “running to be president for all of America, not half of America” and that “we must now come together, rise above past differences and disagreements” was distinctly unTrumpian. He opened quietly, almost gently, and his description of the shooting – never to be repeated, he says – was powerful. He went out of his way to name President Biden only once (“we’ve had the worst inflation we’ve ever had under…that person” he said at one point).
But for much of the speech Trump seemed almost too mellow. One disconcerting feature of the convention is that the teleprompter text is not confined to monitors discreetly placed on the stage, but displayed on big screens around the arena where everyone can see them. This means you know immediately when the speaker departs from the script, and for how long. The first few times, Trump’s asides were short and sometimes funny, but they soon turned into long digressions – tributes, reminiscences and anecdotes, often of dubious relevance – which had the effect of continually stalling the momentum. He even interrupted his peroration to tell a story about Billy Graham.
The crowd were thrilled to see Trump but after a long build-up featuring Hulk Hogan, Tucker Carlson and Kid Rock, they seemed to be itching for more to cheer. Carlson’s introduction seemed to produce more decibels than the main event. Earlier in the week I made a bet with someone as to whether the TV audience would be higher for the speech than the debate. If it was at the beginning, I doubt it was at the end.
Role reversal
In his speech own accepting the vice-presidential nomination on Wednesday, JD Vance was eloquent about his remarkable personal story, growing up in a small Rustbelt town neglected by the political class as “our jobs were sent overseas, and our children were sent to war.”
But it struck me that until fairly recently, the policy parts of the speech would have been more likely to come from a Democrat: “We need a leader who’s not in the pocket of big business, but answers to the working man, union and non-union alike. A leader who won’t sell out to multinational corporations… We’re done, ladies and gentlemen, catering to Wall Street. We’ll commit to the working man… We’re going to build factories again, put people to work, making real products for American families made with the hands of American workers. Together we will protect the wages of American workers.” This tells us at least as much about the shifting demographics of Republican support than any of the culture-war factors we hear so much about.
Like Nikki Haley the previous night, Vance dealt adroitly with his colourful denunciations of Trump over the years: “I think our disagreements actually make us stronger. That’s what I’ve learned in my time in the United States Senate, where sometimes I persuade my colleagues and sometimes, they persuade me… shouldn’t we be governed by a party that is unafraid to debate ideas and come to the best solution?”
In any case, the delegates loved him, regularly interrupting with cheers and chants in the familiar “U-S-A!” style. Hearing about how his mother had overcome poverty and addiction they chanted “J D’s mom! J D’s mom!” You’re a great crowd, he told them. “Yes we are! Yes we are!”
Bureaucrats beware
There is much more talk about the nitty-gritty of policy at the convention than you would think from looking at all the hats and balloons. As well as the familiar themes of enforcing the border, strengthening the military, rebuilding industry and boosting energy independence, another theme regularly crops up – dismantling what they call the “administrative state”.
Most laws in the US, the argument goes, are no longer written by Congress but by “bureaucrats in three-letter government agencies” as Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation think tank puts it. Senator Mike Lee of Utah told a Heritage gathering that of the three branches of government, the founding fathers believed the legislative branch was the most dangerous, “which is why we get to fire all 435 House members and a third of the Senate every two years if we want to.”
But Congress now passes platitudes instead of laws, he says. “It passes a law saying, ‘we shall have clean air’ and gives the EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] the power to decide what clean air is and how much you can pollute.” The result is that people can be put in prison, fined or have their businesses shut down on the basis of rules made by people no-one has elected. The effects are felt in everyday life: “Who misses real light bulbs, shower heads that can do the job, washing machines, dishwashers? Everything is micromanaged by these pinheads, and I say that with all due respect to pinheads.”
MAGA nice
Paying tribute to Corey Comparatore, the former fire chief killed while shielding his wife and daughter from the bullets on Saturday, Senator Marco Rubio spoke this week about the people who attend Trump rallies: “These are the Americans who wear the red hats and wait for hours under a blazing sun to hear Trump speak, and what they want, what they ask for, it is not hateful or extreme. What they want is good jobs and lower prices. They want borders that are secure and for those who come here to do so legally, they want to be safe from criminals and from terrorists, and they want for our leaders to care more about our problems here at home than about the problems of other countries far away.”
The week’s events should give outsiders a new perspective on these people. Many watching the footage and subsequent interviews last weekend will perhaps have thought about them properly for the first time and been struck by their evident decency and humanity. Maybe we will start to hear less of the dismissive talk about MAGA extremists and, as Hillary Clinton had it, “deplorables”, indulging in an ignorant cult of personality. Disagree with them all you want, but don’t look down on them. They are some of the warmest and friendliest people you could hope to meet.
Lonely calling
At a reception during the week we run into the impressive Michael Oved, president of the Harvard Republican Club. Has he got any members? “That’s the first thing everyone asks,” he laughs; about 60 or 70. Does he get a hard time on campus? “It’s not too bad. There was a bit of trouble when we endorsed Donald Trump a couple of weeks ago.” Republican Club backs Republican nominee – shocking news indeed. What kind of trouble? “Well, I had about 13 death threats.” He sounds remarkably calm about it.
Roll up roll up
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, things seem far from settled despite President Biden’s personal determination to be his party’s nominee. As he isolates with covid – another alarm bell about his health, as if one were needed – reports have emerged that figures as elevated as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and even Barack Obama have urged him to step aside for a younger contender with a better chance of victory. By any normal reckoning, Biden’s candidacy should be toast – but having won the Democratic primaries, only he can operate the toaster.
Veteran Republican consultant Terry Nelson, renowned for his sombrely objective realism, told our international group that with polling aggregates showing Trump ahead by more than the margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, Biden’s only path to victory involves winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (he is currently behind in all three) as well as Minnesota, New Hampshire and one of the two split electoral votes in Nebraska – none of which is by any means assured. There is even the chance of a Trump victory in the popular vote – something no Republican has achieved since George W. Bush in 2004 – which would imply a very substantial margin in the electoral college.
For a completely dispassionate view of the prospects there’s nothing like a trip to the bookies. It will not be lost on the Democrats that the betting markets now have Biden as the third favourite to win in November – if you still fancy his chances, Bet365 will give you 11 to 1. Trump is the odds-on favourite at 4/9, or 2/5 with Paddy Power. Kamala Harris is currently at 3 to 1.
