Ashcroft National Poll: Con 36%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 10%, Green 7%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are two points ahead of Labour in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Both parties have seen an increase in their share since last week – the Conservatives up three points to 36%, Labour up one to 34%. The Liberal Democrats are down two points to 6% and UKIP down two to 10%, the party’s lowest vote share in the ANP since its launch last May. The Greens are up two points to 7% and the SNP down two points at 4%.

In other questions I found a small shift in underlying attitudes in favour of Ed Miliband and Labour (more…)

Polling – how I started, and why it’s a force for good: my Anglia Ruskin lecture

By Lord Ashcroft

This is the text of a lecture I gave last night at Anglia Ruskin University, explaining why I began political polling, and why (used properly) it can help bridge the gap between the politicians and the people.

Good evening and thank you all very much for coming. It is a great honour for me to have been asked to speak to you on a subject in which I have developed a consuming interest over the last ten years. Indeed I stand before you not just as Anglia Ruskin’s Chancellor but, at least according to the New Statesman, as “the nation’s Pollster-In-Chief”.

Whether or not such an accolade is deserved, I thought I would use this occasion to talk about how I came to be involved in polling in the first place; why I think opinion research is a useful and indeed vital part of the political process; its limitations; and finally, what I think current research tells us about prospects for the general election (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 33%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 12%, Green 5%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives and Labour are level at 33% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Both parties are up on last week (Labour by four points, the Tories by two). The Liberal Democrats are unchanged at 8%, with UKIP and the Greens each down three points at 12% and 5% respectively. The SNP are up a point at 6%. All but one change was within the margin of error. We will see in the weeks to come whether this signals a sustained move back towards the established parties as voters begin to concentrate on the choice of government (more…)

Why aren’t the Tories running away with the election?

By Lord Ashcroft


This article was first published in The Independent.


“I don’t understand it,” said a chap in one of my focus groups a few days ago. “People think David Cameron is pretty good, and they think Ed Miliband is a muppet. So why is it so close?” Why indeed. It is a question to which books and theses will be devoted in the months to come. But I think we already have a good idea of the answer (more…)

Revisiting competitive Con-Lab marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

The last round of battleground polling I published found one clear Conservative lead and three very close races in seats where the Tory majority over Labour was between 8.8% and 10.6%. I therefore decided to start going back to constituencies where my previous surveys have suggested tight races to see whether narrowing national polls – including a fair number of Conservative leads – were being reflected where it matters (more…)