Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%

Chart 140616

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by six points in the Ashcroft National Poll, completed yesterday. Ed Miliband’s party are on 35%, up three points on last week, with the Conservatives up one on 29%, the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 8%, and UKIP down two points at 15%.

Voting intention continues to be at odds with people’s preference of Prime Minister. A majority of all voters (59%) said they would rather see David Cameron than Ed Miliband in Number Ten. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by four points in the latest Ashcroft National poll, conducted over the past weekend. Ed Miliband’s party is on 32%, down two points on last week, with the Conservatives up three on 28%, the Liberal Democrats up two on 8% and UKIP down two points to 17%.

For the third consecutive week the two largest parties between them command a share of no more than 60%. (more…)

Tories set to hold Newark

Newark

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are on course to hold onto Newark in the by-election on Thursday, according to a poll I have conducted in the constituency. I found the Tories on 42%, with UKIP second on 27% and Labour third on 20%.

This represents a fall in vote share for all three established parties since the last general election: the Conservatives are down 12 points, Labour down 2 and the Liberal Democrats down 14 points on their 2010 score. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 25%, Lab 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 19%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are up three to 34% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, extending their lead over the Conservatives to nine points. UKIP have risen a further two points to 19%, while the Liberal Democrats continue their dismal run, falling back to 6%. The Tories’ share, 25%, is their lowest in a published poll for a year. We will see in the next few weeks whether this is a blip in the midst of a volatile period or something more troubling for David Cameron (and, as ever, it is worth bearing in mind the 3-point margin of error).

Most voters said they expected the economy to do well over the coming year, both for themselves and the country as a whole. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead has narrowed to two points in the Ashcroft National Poll conducted between 23 and 25 May.

The finale of the Euro election campaign, together with the coverage of UKIP’s victory, has helped Nigel Farage’s party to 17% in my survey, with the Conservatives unchanged from last week on 29%, Labour down four points on 31%, and the Lib Dems down one on 8%. The UKIP share is the highest yet recorded in a national telephone poll. (more…)

What I told the ConHome conference about my battleground poll

ConfPic

By Lord Ashcroft

Here is the text of my speech to the Conservative Home Spring Conference this afternoon in which I discussed the detail of my latest battleground poll. The slides from my presentation are here.

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Good afternoon, and as the proud proprietor of Conservative Home let me add my welcome to our second annual Spring Conference.

As you will know by now, I am here to tell you what is really going on. (more…)

The Conservative-Labour battleground

Dashboard Automated version FOR PUBLICATION

By Lord Ashcroft

In the last few weeks I have polled more than 26,000 voters in 26 constituencies that will be among the most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour at the next general election.

Across the battleground I found a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. But this is a snapshot, not a prediction. The research also found that most voters in these seats are optimistic about the economy, and only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. As I have found in the Ashcroft National Poll, half of voters say they may change their mind before the election – and there is still a year to go. (more…)

UKIP’s Euro-voters are now up for grabs

By Lord Ashcroft

Tomorrow night’s European Parliament election results will bring a frenzy of analysis and speculation. Why did so many people vote UKIP? Who did they support before? What do they care about? And most of all, what will they do when it comes to the next election?

As we pollsters say: you can guess, or you can find out. In the 12 hours after the polls closed on Thursday night I surveyed over 4,000 people who took part in the Euro election. My poll doesn’t try to predict the result – that would be illegal before voting has finished in all European countries – but it helps explain why voters did what they did, and what they might do next. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are ahead by six points in my latest general election voting intention poll, conducted over the past weekend. The survey puts Labour on 35% (up three points since last week), the Conservatives on 29% (down five), the Lib Dems unchanged on 9% and UKIP down one point at 14%. This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on? (more…)

Tories lead in my first weekly national poll

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By Lord Ashcroft

For the first time in more than two years, the Conservatives are ahead in a national voting intention poll. The first of my weekly telephone surveys has found a two-point Tory lead: Conservative 34%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 9%, UKIP 15%. (more…)