Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by four points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Though both main parties are up on last week’s scores, we continue the longer term pattern I noted in my review of the ANP to date: a similar overall lead to other pollsters (Populus had Labour ahead by three points today, and YouGov by five yesterday), but with a slightly lower combined score for Labour and the Tories than in online surveys. The scores in full are Labour 36%, Conservatives 32%, Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 14%, Greens 6%. (more…)

The Ashcroft National Poll – the story so far

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By Lord Ashcroft

At the end of May I published a poll on the Newark by-election which put the Conservatives well ahead of UKIP, by 42% to 27%. This raised a few eyebrows, both within parts of the polling fraternity and beyond. Surely the Tory lead was too big? Surely I had missed the UKIP insurgency that would follow their victory in the Euro elections two weeks previously? Surely I was overestimating the number of Tory voters from 2010 who would turn out for the party again despite saying they didn’t know how they would vote?

When the ballots were counted four days after fieldwork ended, each party’s vote share was within the margin of error of my poll. I had been within a point on UKIP, who scored 26% (so much for understating them), two points on Labour, three points on the Liberal Democrats and three points on the Conservatives – whose share was higher, not lower, than in my survey.

As I always say, a poll is a snapshot, not a forecast, so I can’t have it both ways when one of mine is proven to be accurate. But the reason I mention it now is that the methodology used in the Newark poll is essentially the same as that employed in the Ashcroft National Poll, which has come under a good deal of scrutiny in the last couple of weeks. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 27%, Lab 34%, LD 11%, UKIP 15%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are back in the lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, with the Conservatives falling back to 27% from last week’s score of 33%. Last week I suggested that their boost may have been down to a short-term “Junker effect” as voters approved of the Prime Minister fighting Britain’s corner in Brussels. Such an effect seems to have been short-lived, with the party’s support returning to levels I have found in previous surveys. The wider Labour lead is in line with other surveys published today by Populus (7 points) and over the weekend by Opinium (6 points).

Other parties’ changes are within the margin of error, giving us scores of Conservative 27% (-6%), Labour 34% (+3), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2), UKIP 15% (no change). The Greens are also unchanged on 6%. (more…)

The Lib Dem – Labour battleground


By Lord Ashcroft

The Liberal Democrats’ vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.

My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%.

The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Labour lead is down to five points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted between Friday and Sunday. Labour are down two points to 33%, with the Conservatives down one to 28%, the Liberal Democrats up one to 9% and UKIP up two on 17%. Other parties account for 14%, including the Greens up one point on 7%.

Just over half of all voters said they would definitely vote for their chosen party next May, with 47% saying they may yet change their mind. (more…)

The Conservative – Lib Dem battleground


By Lord Ashcroft

At the 2010 general election the Liberal Democrats won 24% of the popular vote. By the end of that year the party’s share in national polls had fallen by half, and it has since shown no sign of recovering. Whether this collapse in national support means the Lib Dems lose a proportionate number of seats is one of the most important factors that will determine the outcome of the next election.

The Lib Dems are famously tenacious local campaigners. Their strategy has long been to build support at constituency level through by-elections and local government, and once elected their incumbents have proved hard to shift. Last year’s Eastleigh by-election showed the party can still mobilise its council base to hold on to a Westminster seat in spite of wider conditions. If they are able to repeat this feat at a general election, could there be rather more Lib Dem MPs in the new House of Commons than the current national polls imply? (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by six points in the Ashcroft National Poll, completed yesterday. Ed Miliband’s party are on 35%, up three points on last week, with the Conservatives up one on 29%, the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 8%, and UKIP down two points at 15%.

Voting intention continues to be at odds with people’s preference of Prime Minister. A majority of all voters (59%) said they would rather see David Cameron than Ed Miliband in Number Ten. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by four points in the latest Ashcroft National poll, conducted over the past weekend. Ed Miliband’s party is on 32%, down two points on last week, with the Conservatives up three on 28%, the Liberal Democrats up two on 8% and UKIP down two points to 17%.

For the third consecutive week the two largest parties between them command a share of no more than 60%. (more…)

Tories set to hold Newark


By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are on course to hold onto Newark in the by-election on Thursday, according to a poll I have conducted in the constituency. I found the Tories on 42%, with UKIP second on 27% and Labour third on 20%.

This represents a fall in vote share for all three established parties since the last general election: the Conservatives are down 12 points, Labour down 2 and the Liberal Democrats down 14 points on their 2010 score. (more…)