The election cost the Tories their crucial competitive advantage: a reputation for competence

By Lord Ashcroft

This article first appeared in the Telegraph.

 

In January 1993, the Conservative Party’s average poll rating was 
39 per cent. Twelve months later it had fallen to 31 per cent, and there it stayed, or thereabouts, for more than a decade. Throughout that time, and until after their third consecutive general election defeat, the Tories suffered from a fatal combination of flaws. People did not think the party was on their side or in touch with life as they lived it, and neither did they think it was up to the job of running the country.

It would be a bit much to say the Tories are in the same predicament today. When, in 2005, I published Smell The Coffee – an analysis of public opinion in which I set out the scale of the challenge they faced – the party had won less than a third of the vote, and just 198 seats. But after the disappointment of the 2017 election, the Tories need to take stock of their relationship with the voters – it’s time to smell the coffee all over again (more…)

The Lost Majority: The 2017 election, the Conservative Party, the voters and the future

By Lord Ashcroft

The 2017 election was supposed to be a walkover for the Conservative Party – but the voters had other ideas. My new book, The Lost Majority, aims to help explain how the unexpected result came about and why the thumping victory the Tories expected never happened. More importantly, it looks at the state of the party’s relationship with the voters in the wake of the campaign, and the challenge of winning a majority in parliament when even 42 per cent of the vote was not enough for outright victory. I have written about my main conclusions in today’s Telegraph.

The book draws on my research before June 8th and on election day itself, as well as comprehensive new polling conducted since the electorate delivered its verdict (more…)

Rises all round? My public sector pay poll

By Lord Ashcroft

Large majorities think many public sector workers should be given pay rises above one per cent, and most Labour voters think their party should support strike action if pay demands are not met, according to my latest poll.

Support for higher increases in pay is greatest for nurses (86%), police officers (75%) and the Armed Forces (70%), though only just over half say they support rises above one per cent for doctors, and immigration and border staff. Only one in three would support such a rise for civil servants. Most Conservative voters support bigger rises for all the groups we asked about apart from teachers, doctors and civil servants (more…)

How did this result happen? My post-vote survey

By Lord Ashcroft

I surveyed over 14,000 people on election day who had already cast their vote to help understand how this unexpected result came about. My poll came very close to reflecting the outcome of the election, with 41% saying they had voted Conservative, 39% Labour, and 9% voted Liberal Democrat (the result in Great Britain has been 43% Conservative, 41% Labour, 7% Lib Dems). The survey found two thirds of those aged 18 to 24 saying they voted Labour, as did more than half of those aged 25 to 34. Voters aged over 55 broke for the Tories (more…)

Estimated Conservative majority rises in final Ashcroft Model update

By Lord Ashcroft

The final results from the Ashcroft Model shows an increase in the estimated Conservative majority compared to Tuesday’s figures. The new data is based on an updated survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, which found a hardening of the Conservative vote as Tory supporters gave a higher likelihood of turning out to vote than in previous rounds. The upshot is as follows:

  • Using voters’ self-declared likelihood to turn out, the model estimates 373 Conservative seats, or a Conservative overall majority of 96.
  • If turnout were to match that of the 2015 election, the model estimates 364 Conservative seats, or a majority of 78.
  • If everyone who claims to have voted in the EU referendum turns out, the estimated number of Conservative seats falls to 351, or a majority of 52.

Merging these three together and adding each party’s win chances in all the seats they are standing gives a “combined probabilistic estimate” of 363 seats, or a majority of 76, up from 64 in Tuesday’s update (more…)

Ashcroft Model update: potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78) (more…)

Ashcroft Model update: new potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates

By Lord Ashcroft

This week’s estimates from the Ashcroft Model suggest a narrowing of the Conservative majority, though still a comfortable victory for Theresa May. Our “combined probabilistic estimate”, in which we take the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, the model gives the Conservatives 355 seats (down from 396 last week), or a potential majority of 60.

However, the majority could be considerably better or worse than this for the Conservatives, depending on the pattern of turnout. Our model calculates three different results, depending on who actually shows up to the polls. If everyone who claims in our surveys to have voted in the EU referendum turns out next week, the number of Conservative seats could fall to 345, with 233 for Labour – an overall majority of 40. But such a surge fails to materialise and turnout is confined to those who actually cast their vote in 2015, our estimated Tory majority rises to 78 (more…)

“She called the snap election and can’t be bothered turning up to it”: my final round of focus groups

By Lord Ashcroft

The final round of my general election focus groups comes from three Labour seats in Wales: Cardiff South & Penarth, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport West, with participants who voted Labour or UKIP in 2015. As they looked back on the campaign, what had made an impression? “It’s mostly the gaffes that stand out…The lady for Labour, when she completely messed up.” “Diane Abbott.” “That’s the one. That sticks out for me.” “The pensioners getting screwed.” “Corbyn today, not knowing about childcare, and Theresa May launching her manifesto that within twelve hours had been turned round.” Few had felt inspired: “It strikes me there’s no real vision, how to take the next step. To be honest, it’s a little bit of a mess.”

What about the last few days? “There was a lot about her not going to the debate yesterday. And that tends to overshadow the actual debate.” Does that matter? “Yes!” “She called the snap election, and can’t be bothered turning up to it (more…)

Ashcroft Election Tour podcast: Cardiff, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport

By Lord Ashcroft

The final edition of the Ashcroft Election Tour podcast comes from three Welsh constituencies – Cardiff South & Penarth, Alyn & Deeside, and Newport West. Undecided former Labour and UKIP voters discuss campaign highlights, manifestos, policies, and the leaders as biscuits.

 

 

Ashcroft Model update: estimated vote shares by seat, and new potential majorities

By Lord Ashcroft

This week we have added a new feature to the Ashcroft Model dashboard. The constituency-by-constituency pages now show estimated current vote shares for each seat in three different scenarios: according to turnout in the 2015 general election; including those who say they voted in the EU referendum; and including those who say they will vote in June.

Alongside these estimated vote shares, the model also shows the leading party’s “win chance” in that seat (more…)