Ashcroft National Poll: Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%.

The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Labour lead is down to five points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted between Friday and Sunday. Labour are down two points to 33%, with the Conservatives down one to 28%, the Liberal Democrats up one to 9% and UKIP up two on 17%. Other parties account for 14%, including the Greens up one point on 7%.

Just over half of all voters said they would definitely vote for their chosen party next May, with 47% saying they may yet change their mind. (more…)

The Conservative – Lib Dem battleground

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By Lord Ashcroft

At the 2010 general election the Liberal Democrats won 24% of the popular vote. By the end of that year the party’s share in national polls had fallen by half, and it has since shown no sign of recovering. Whether this collapse in national support means the Lib Dems lose a proportionate number of seats is one of the most important factors that will determine the outcome of the next election.

The Lib Dems are famously tenacious local campaigners. Their strategy has long been to build support at constituency level through by-elections and local government, and once elected their incumbents have proved hard to shift. Last year’s Eastleigh by-election showed the party can still mobilise its council base to hold on to a Westminster seat in spite of wider conditions. If they are able to repeat this feat at a general election, could there be rather more Lib Dem MPs in the new House of Commons than the current national polls imply? (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by six points in the Ashcroft National Poll, completed yesterday. Ed Miliband’s party are on 35%, up three points on last week, with the Conservatives up one on 29%, the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 8%, and UKIP down two points at 15%.

Voting intention continues to be at odds with people’s preference of Prime Minister. A majority of all voters (59%) said they would rather see David Cameron than Ed Miliband in Number Ten. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by four points in the latest Ashcroft National poll, conducted over the past weekend. Ed Miliband’s party is on 32%, down two points on last week, with the Conservatives up three on 28%, the Liberal Democrats up two on 8% and UKIP down two points to 17%.

For the third consecutive week the two largest parties between them command a share of no more than 60%. (more…)

Tories set to hold Newark

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By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives are on course to hold onto Newark in the by-election on Thursday, according to a poll I have conducted in the constituency. I found the Tories on 42%, with UKIP second on 27% and Labour third on 20%.

This represents a fall in vote share for all three established parties since the last general election: the Conservatives are down 12 points, Labour down 2 and the Liberal Democrats down 14 points on their 2010 score. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 25%, Lab 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 19%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are up three to 34% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, extending their lead over the Conservatives to nine points. UKIP have risen a further two points to 19%, while the Liberal Democrats continue their dismal run, falling back to 6%. The Tories’ share, 25%, is their lowest in a published poll for a year. We will see in the next few weeks whether this is a blip in the midst of a volatile period or something more troubling for David Cameron (and, as ever, it is worth bearing in mind the 3-point margin of error).

Most voters said they expected the economy to do well over the coming year, both for themselves and the country as a whole. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 17%

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By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead has narrowed to two points in the Ashcroft National Poll conducted between 23 and 25 May.

The finale of the Euro election campaign, together with the coverage of UKIP’s victory, has helped Nigel Farage’s party to 17% in my survey, with the Conservatives unchanged from last week on 29%, Labour down four points on 31%, and the Lib Dems down one on 8%. The UKIP share is the highest yet recorded in a national telephone poll. (more…)

What I told the ConHome conference about my battleground poll

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By Lord Ashcroft

Here is the text of my speech to the Conservative Home Spring Conference this afternoon in which I discussed the detail of my latest battleground poll. The slides from my presentation are here.

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Good afternoon, and as the proud proprietor of Conservative Home let me add my welcome to our second annual Spring Conference.

As you will know by now, I am here to tell you what is really going on. (more…)

The Conservative-Labour battleground

Dashboard Automated version FOR PUBLICATION

By Lord Ashcroft

In the last few weeks I have polled more than 26,000 voters in 26 constituencies that will be among the most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour at the next general election.

Across the battleground I found a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. But this is a snapshot, not a prediction. The research also found that most voters in these seats are optimistic about the economy, and only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. As I have found in the Ashcroft National Poll, half of voters say they may change their mind before the election – and there is still a year to go. (more…)