The Ashcroft National Poll

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by seven points in the latest Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party is up two points since the last ANP at the beginning of August to 35%; the Conservatives are down two at 28%, and the other parties are unchanged: UKIP on 18%, the Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 6%. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 30%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by three points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Vote shares were Labour 33% (down one point on last week), Conservatives 30% (down two), Liberal Democrats 8% (down one), UKIP 18% (up four) and the Greens unchanged on 6%. All changes except the UKIP score were within the margin of error.

The three-point margin reflects those published yesterday by YouGov and Opinium, but with lower scores for both Labour and the Tories. A smaller two-party combined vote share has been a regular pattern in the ANP; we will see whether it continues into the autumn and the start of the long campaign. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead by two points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted between Friday and Sunday. Labour were down one point on 34% with the Conservatives up five on 32%, the Liberal Democrats up two to 9% and UKIP down three to 14%. The narrower Labour advantage reflects that of other polls published over the weekend.

It is important to see the change in the Conservative vote share in the context of the longer term trend: though the Tory figures have moved around more than those of other parties in the ANP, they have been around 30%, within the margin of error, for eight weeks, while Labour remain firmly in the mid-30s. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 27%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 17%, Green 7%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead has risen to eight points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The widening margin, following a similar shift in the Populus poll published this morning, stems mainly from a five-point fall in the Conservative share to 27%. Other movements are within the margin of error: Labour are down one point to 35%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 7%, UKIP up three to 17%, and the Greens up one point to 7%.

As ever, the poll should be seen as a snapshot in the context of longer term trends. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by four points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Though both main parties are up on last week’s scores, we continue the longer term pattern I noted in my review of the ANP to date: a similar overall lead to other pollsters (Populus had Labour ahead by three points today, and YouGov by five yesterday), but with a slightly lower combined score for Labour and the Tories than in online surveys. The scores in full are Labour 36%, Conservatives 32%, Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 14%, Greens 6%. (more…)

The Ashcroft National Poll – the story so far

By Lord Ashcroft

At the end of May I published a poll on the Newark by-election which put the Conservatives well ahead of UKIP, by 42% to 27%. This raised a few eyebrows, both within parts of the polling fraternity and beyond. Surely the Tory lead was too big? Surely I had missed the UKIP insurgency that would follow their victory in the Euro elections two weeks previously? Surely I was overestimating the number of Tory voters from 2010 who would turn out for the party again despite saying they didn’t know how they would vote?

When the ballots were counted four days after fieldwork ended, each party’s vote share was within the margin of error of my poll. I had been within a point on UKIP, who scored 26% (so much for understating them), two points on Labour, three points on the Liberal Democrats and three points on the Conservatives – whose share was higher, not lower, than in my survey.

As I always say, a poll is a snapshot, not a forecast, so I can’t have it both ways when one of mine is proven to be accurate. But the reason I mention it now is that the methodology used in the Newark poll is essentially the same as that employed in the Ashcroft National Poll, which has come under a good deal of scrutiny in the last couple of weeks. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 27%, Lab 34%, LD 11%, UKIP 15%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are back in the lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, with the Conservatives falling back to 27% from last week’s score of 33%. Last week I suggested that their boost may have been down to a short-term “Junker effect” as voters approved of the Prime Minister fighting Britain’s corner in Brussels. Such an effect seems to have been short-lived, with the party’s support returning to levels I have found in previous surveys. The wider Labour lead is in line with other surveys published today by Populus (7 points) and over the weekend by Opinium (6 points).

Other parties’ changes are within the margin of error, giving us scores of Conservative 27% (-6%), Labour 34% (+3), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2), UKIP 15% (no change). The Greens are also unchanged on 6%. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%.

The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 28%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 17%

By Lord Ashcroft

The Labour lead is down to five points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted between Friday and Sunday. Labour are down two points to 33%, with the Conservatives down one to 28%, the Liberal Democrats up one to 9% and UKIP up two on 17%. Other parties account for 14%, including the Greens up one point on 7%.

Just over half of all voters said they would definitely vote for their chosen party next May, with 47% saying they may yet change their mind. (more…)

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 29%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour lead by six points in the Ashcroft National Poll, completed yesterday. Ed Miliband’s party are on 35%, up three points on last week, with the Conservatives up one on 29%, the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 8%, and UKIP down two points at 15%.

Voting intention continues to be at odds with people’s preference of Prime Minister. A majority of all voters (59%) said they would rather see David Cameron than Ed Miliband in Number Ten. (more…)