By-elections

Corby: A bad result for the Conservatives, but we must keep it in perspective

By Lord Ashcroft

So, a nail-biter in Corby. Would the Liberal Democrats keep their deposit or not? The party scraped 5% in my second poll of the by-election campaign a month ago; on the day itself they failed to reach that threshold by a handful of votes.

At that stage, Labour were 22 points ahead of the Conservatives in voting intention. This finding closely matched Andy Sawford’s 21-point margin of victory, and the Tory-Labour swing. However, the vote share of both main parties was eroded over the final few weeks of the campaign.

(more…)

Labour take 22-point lead in Corby

By Lord Ashcroft

The week after Louise Mensch announced her departure from parliament, my first poll in Corby found a 15-point lead for Labour. My second poll, conducted last week, brings rather worse news for the Conservatives. Labour have consolidated their position and Andy Sawford is now 22 points ahead. All parties’ supporters are now surer of how they will vote than they were at the beginning of the campaign, suggesting Labour’s lead is now entrenched.

(more…)

Labour set for comfortable win in Corby

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are set for comfortable win in the Corby & East Northamptonshire by-election, according to a poll I conducted in the days following Louise Mensch’s resignation announcement. They begin the campaign with a 15-point lead: 52% to the Conservatives’ 37%.

(more…)

Feltham & Heston: should Labour be doing better?

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour are 22 points ahead in the Feltham & Heston by-election, according to my latest poll. With a 52% vote share in the week before polling day, Seema Malhotra seems to be on course for what looks like a convincing victory.

(more…)

It was right for the Tories not to waste money in Oldham

By Lord Ashcroft

Two principal questions are preoccupying Conservative commentators about the result from Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election. First, was the Liberal Democrat vote share largely due to tactical voting by previous Conservative supporters? Second, would a bigger Conservative presence on the campaign trail have made any significant difference to the result? I decided to find out over the weekend by re-polling 500 of the voters who took part in my pre-election survey (which turned out to be very accurate). The answers to the questions are: yes, and almost certainly not.

(more…)

Labour set to hold Oldham East & Saddleworth

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour look set to hold the Oldham East & Saddleworth seat rather more comfortably than they did at the general election. For all the speculation, this by-election was always Labour’s to lose.

(more…)