By Lord Ashcroft
UKIP lead the Conservatives by 44% to 32% in the Rochester & Strood by-election, according to my poll of the constituency completed yesterday. Labour are a distant third with 17%, with the Liberal Democrats on 2%.
The previous three polls of the campaign have all found the Conservatives on between 30% and 33%. While UKIP appear to have consolidated their position over the course of the campaign, Labour have declined from the mid-twenties to the mid-teens.
In my poll just over half (54%) of 2010 Conservative voters naming a party said they would stay with the Tories in the by-election, while 44% would switch to UKIP. (more…)