Today’s batch of marginal snapshots includes three of the most intriguing and closely contested seats of this general election campaign. South Swindon is a very tight Conservative-Labour marginal which I have polled twice before, finding a tie both

Earlier this week it came to light that a poll I published last November in Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. Concerned that this may not have been an isolated incident, I reviewed two other polls I commissioned from the same company a

This piece was first published in The Independent A surprising number of people are candid enough to admit that they voted Liberal Democrat in previous elections because they simply could not decide between Labour and the Tories. Others like the part

The Conservatives lead by two points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tory lead is down by four since last week, with Labour unchanged on 30%. The Liberal Democrats are up two points at 11%, UKIP up one at

This is the text of a speech I gave last night in Edinburgh. I was introduced by Chris Deerin. Thank you, Chris, for that kind welcome, and can I say what an honour it is to be introduced by Scotland’s Columnist Of The Year? Those of you who read

In my latest round of constituency research I have returned to eight seats in the Liberal Democrats’ battleground where I found very close contests in previous rounds of polling. These included one Conservative-held seat (Camborne & Redruth), f

Labour have taken a narrow lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party are ahead by a single point with 31%, with the Conservatives on 30%, UKIP up two points at 16%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 9%, and the

Last week, along with various colleagues from the polling fraternity, I was asked by the Independent on Sunday to make a prediction about the election. At the risk of looking like a spoilsport I declined, as I always do when faced with such a questio

My latest round of constituency polling includes an assortment of seats and some intriguing results. Of the eighteen seats I have polled over the past four weeks, eleven are held by the Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives in second place. These