Latest Scottish constituency polling

By Lord Ashcroft

In my latest round of constituency polling I have returned to Scotland. This selection includes eight seats, including five I have polled before (East Renfrewshire, Glasgow South West, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Ross, Skye & Lochaber, and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale) and three new ones (Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, East Dunbartonshire and North East Fife).

I wanted to know whether the SNP surge had subsided in places I had previously surveyed; whether it threatened other incumbents, especially Lib Dems; and whether there were any potential surprises in store. The answers are no, yes and yes (more…)

More Conservative-Labour marginals

By Lord Ashcroft

In my last round of polling in Conservative-Labour marginals I found the Tories consolidating in most seats where they had been ahead in previous rounds, while Labour had extended their leads where they had been doing well last year. Some races were very close and Labour had taken the lead in one constituency where the Tories had been ahead in December.

The lack of a consistent pattern in the battleground has led me to look further down the Conservative defence list to see whether there could be some surprises in seats which ought, on paper, to be safer for the Tories (more…)